By-elections double whammy for Labour

Record breaking results suggest a change of government is on the way

Labour will be buoyant, and the Conservatives downcast, after two smashing by-election wins for the opposition in (formerly) very safe Conservative seats last night. Here are the scores on the doors:

19th October 2023 by-election results

These are both record breaking results for the opposition - Mid-Bedfordshire is the largest numerical Conservative majority Labour has ever overturned and Tamworth is the largest percentage majority ever overhauled. The swing in Tamworth is also the second largest Conservative to Labour swing in a by-election since 1945, surpassed only by the tidal wave in Dudley West in 1994, soon after Tony Blair became Labour leader.

A dig into the details provides further encouragement for Labour. The Lib Dem and Green vote fell sharply in Tamworth, and the Green vote in Mid-Bedfordshire halved, adding to the growing pile of evidence that a strongly anti-Conservative mood is leading to increased tactical voting by voters who regard evicting Conservative MPs as their first priority. In Mid-Bedfordshire the worry was that a split opposition would prevent co-ordination, and to some extent this proved true - the spoils from a collapsing Conservative vote were evenly shared. Labour pessimists - a populous tribe - may worry that defeat through division was only narrowly averted here. Labour optimists might retort that the Lib Dems may have taken extra votes from the Tory column that were never going to go Labour, and by doing so, helped to lower the daunting bar for victory in a seat Labour have never won.

But perhaps the most important point is this - the swing to Labour was again huge, and they won in a true blue seat which would have looked way out of reach even a couple of years ago. Mid-Bedfordshire has never returned a Labour MP before, and the Lab-Lib vote split did not prevent it doing so for the first time this week. In any event there are few seats which both parties would want to target. With one opposition party the clear favourite in most seats, the door is wide open for major anti-Conservative tactical co-ordination next year, and voters look more eager than ever to walk through it. An awful lot of Conservative MPs will be more nervous about their future job prospects after today’s results once again confirm the electorate is very keen to put them out of office.

Mid-1990s vibe intensifies

These two results confirm what many already suspected in July - that the surprise Conservative Uxbridge hold was an outlier, and the massive swing to Labour in Selby and Ainsty was the better indicator of the public mood. Labour has achieved swings of 20 points or more from the Conservatives in eight by-elections since 1945 - and three of those have happened this year. Keir Starmer needs one more swing on this scale to equal the record of four twenty point swings set by Tony Blair in the 1992-1997 Parliament. We all know how that story ended.

If that isn’t enough to convince you Labour are on course, consider this: the largest swing Labour have ever acheived, then gone on to lose, is Neil Kinnock’s 21.3 point swing in 1990. That swing was achieved at the height of the Poll Tax backlash, and just months before the Conservatives changed course drastically by ditching both the Poll Tax and the Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, who introduced it. Keir Starmer has already beaten that 1990 yardstick twice this year, and the Conservatives, having already ditched two unpopular PMs, look unlikely either to ditch a third, or to recover much even if they do.

Swings of 20 points or more to Labour in by-elections since 1945

As regular Swingometer readers will know, there are other ways we can slice the swing statistics for hints as to Labour’s relative strength. By-elections are imperfect performance indicators, but they do provide hints, particularly if we focus on “big two” contests between the Conservatives and Labour. In the chart below I take a look at average swings from the government to the opposition in every parliament since 1945, and compare this with updated averages for Labour over the whole of the Parliament to date (grey bar) and in by-elections held since the “partygate” scandals broke (black bar).

Average government to opposition swings, “big two” by-elections, Parliaments since 1945

Colour of bar indicates opposition party, dark bars indicate Parliaments where the opposition went on to win the next general election, light bars indicates Parliaments where the incumbent won another term

The latest two smashing wins have pulled Labour’s average swing in “big two” by-elections for the whole Parliament up to 9 points. This is getting close to the swing levels seen in past Parliaments where the opposition went on to win - Margaret Thatcher managed an average swing of 10 points in 1974-79, David Cameron managed 10.9 points in 2005-10 and Ted Heath managed 12.1 points in 1966-70. Starmer is already wel ahead of some general election winners: Harold Wilson managed only 5.5 points in the 1959-64 Parliament, and 4.3 points in 1970-74, while Winston Churchill managed just 4.9 points in 1950-51. Are were well behind Starmer’s current average.

However, we should take seriously the possibility that the first two years of this Parliament were an outlier, with a major pandemic driven “rally round the flag” effect. If we therefore focus instead on by-elections since 2021, the average swing to Labour is 12.4 points, meaning Starmer is now ahead of five of the six opposition leaders who have gone on to win general elections since 1945. He is behind only one - Tony Blair (14.4 point average swing) - and his performances this year have been matching Blair’s best.

The strength of Starmer’s current position can be made even clearer with an even more basic comparison. In the graph below, I compare Labour’s current performances with the average swing for all the postwar Parliament when the incumbent party goes on to win (light grey) and those when the opposition takes office (black). By-election swings in terms when the incumbent ends up prevailing average 4 points; when the opposition wins the average swing is nine points. Labour’s overall average for the this parliamentary term is now 9.3 points - above the average for winning oppositions in the past, and over twice the average for losing oppositions. If we take the two years since “partygate”, the 12 point swing achieved by Starmer is well ahead of the average performance by winning oppositions in the past. On any metric, Labour now look like an opposition on course for government.

Average swings to the opposition since 1945 in Parliaments where the incumbent wins (grey) and when the opposition wins (black), and Labour’s performances since 2019 (light red) and since December 2021 (dark red)

More good news to come?

Labour may get yet another opportunity to demonstrate strength, and deepen panic in Conservative ranks, within a few months. On October 16th, an independent panel recommended a suspension of six weeks for Wellingborough MP Peter Bone. If a suspension of this length is confirmed by the Commons, this would be sufficient to trigger a recall petition for Bone. Based on the evidence from this Parliament to date, such a petition would have a high chance of success. It is also possible that Bone, who is 71, will opt to retire rather than go through the recall process. Either outcome would result in yet another by-election in an English seat with a large Tory majority, but a past tendency to back Labour when it is strong. Wellingborough flipped to Labour in 1945, 1964 and 1997, and the current Conservative majority of 35.7 points - suggesting another Labour win there is on the cards if the swings of this week are repeated.