Local elections: the Big Preview, part 3

A look at all 107 local councils!

The AI dreams of local elections

The biggest exercise in democracy this week takes place in England’s town halls - 107 councils are holding elections this year – 31 metropolitan borough councils, 18 unitary authorities, and 58 district councils. This is in fact a relatively small set of local elections - last year’s was far larger - but nearly 2,700 seats will still be won and lost in coming days. Here you’ll get a whistlestop tour of all of the contests and what is at stake in each.  

Metropolitan Borough councils

Of the 31 Metropolitan Boroughs up for election, 25 are held by Labour; 3 are in No Overall Control; 3 are held by the Conservatives. Only a third of councillors are being elected in all but three of these 31 councils, so the likelihood of Labour losing councils it already holds are low, but some are worth watching for signs of broader electoral currents.

Labour held councils - most of these are all but certain to remain in Labour hands, but keep a close eye on Kirklees, Oldham and Rochdale for evidence that Labour are paying a price at the ballot box for recent internal arguments over Gaza, while Manchester, Knowsley and Trafford are worth watching for evidence of a challenge to Labour on the left flank from the Greens, while Sunderland is worth watching for a challenge on the populist right flank from ReformUK.

Barnsley (63 seats): Labour hold 47 out of 63 seats in a council they have controlled unbroken since its creation in 1974, with little change in recent contests. Conservatives could be reduced to just one seat.

Bradford (90 seats): Labour currently hold 53 seats so their majority is not under threat, but this is a restive area with a large Muslim population which elected George Galloway in a by-election upset not so long ago – two councillors have left Labour over Gaza and the Greens have made gains in recent – picking up 6 seats since 2021. Worth watching for signs of potential trouble to come for Labour

Bury (51 seats): Labour hold 31 seats, and another majority looks certain. They have made 5 gains in last two years, and will want to make more – this council area includes two ultra-marginal Westminster seats.

Calderdale (51 seats) in West Yorkshire – Labour holds a slender majority (27 of 51), and has had one councillor resign. Labour should gain seats from the Conservatives, and should hold the council, but both the Lib Dems and Greens have made gains here recently, so a loss of control can’t entirely be ruled out. One to watch.

Coventry (54 seats): Labour, with 37 seats, have a large majority now and will again. Stable Labour dominance here in recent years, though as recently as 2008 this was a Conservative run council. 

Gateshead (66 seats): With 49 seats, Labour have an unassailable majority in a council they have ruled for 50 years unbroken since its creation. The Lib Dems provide the only opposition and have gained 4 seats in the last two years – they will aim to add more seats this year.

Kirklees in West Yorkshire (69 seats) – the loss of four councillors over Gaza has left Labour with a razor thin 1 seat majority.  They have made gains in each of the last two cycles, so should be able to improve their position, but this one will be watched closely.

Knowsley (45 seats): Like Gateshead, a Conservative free zone. Labour are dominant with 31 seats, but watch for the Greens here – they’ve made gains in each of the last three years and will look to do so again.

Leeds (99 seats): With 61 seats, Labour are certain to remain in control of Leeds, and will expect to further improve their position, having made three gains in each of the last two cycles

Manchester (96 seats): Practically a one party state – Labour have 87 of the seats, which actually constitutes a retreat – Labour had all but two seats three years ago. One Labour councillor has quit over Gaza, a muted response given the large Muslim population here. Both Lib Dems and Greens have made gains here in last couple of years and will hope to do so again.

Newcastle upon Tyne (78 seats): Another Tory free zone where the main opposition to a dominant local Labour party (46 seats) comes from the Lib Dems, who have made gains in each of the last two years and will be hoping to repeat the trick this year.

Oldham (60 seats) Labour have a slender majority here (31 seats out of 60), having lost two councillors over the Gaza conflict in April (both now sit as independents). Labour have lost seats on Oldham council in each of the last three elections, and independent candidates are campaigning hard for support from the large Muslim population. Labour will be particularly nervous about this contest.

Rochdale (60 seats): On paper this is another safe Labour majority (the party hold 46 seats) but this was the site of an upset by-election win for George Galloway in February. Mr Galloway has said he is putting the council “on notice” and intends to “clean the town hall clock”. Worth watching to see how Galloway endorsed candidates do, though Labour only have to re-elect one out of 16 councillors up this time to remain in control.  

Salford (60 seats): Labour have a dominant majority (49 out of 60). Lib Dems might make 1 or 2 gains.

Sandwell (72 seats): Labour are dominant here (59 out of 72 seats), and local councillors are being given back control this year after three years of services being run by central government appointed commissioners. Two councillors defected from Tories to Labour in January this year. Worth watching results for hints about the West Midlands Mayoral contest too.  

Sefton (66 seats): Labour dominate this Merseyside council (51 seats) – they have made gains in last two years and will want to make more advances this year in the northern wards of this council – which form the last remaining Conservative seat in Merseyside (Southport).

South Tyneside (54 seats): With 38 seats, Labour are certain to remain in control – but watch the Greens here – they’ve gained 6 seats in the last 2 years.

Sunderland (75 seats): Labour control is certain (they have 47 seats), and they may gain back some of the seats Conservatives won in 2021. Watch the Reform performance here – they’re standing a full slate of candidates in a council where UKIP won seats as recently as 2019.  

Tameside (57 seats): Another near one-party state – Labour have 51 of 57 seats, and could push the local Conservatives closer to extinction this year – particularly if they are able to capitalise on local backlash against the Conservatives’ vilification of Angela Rayner, who is one of the local MPs.

Trafford (63 seats): Labour’s rise to dominance is likely to continue in a borough the Conservatives ran for nearly 20 years until 2018 – the Conservatives have lost seats every year since. Greens are on the rise here – worth watching to see if they make further gains in the south of the borough. The key Labour target of Altringham and Sale West is in this borough - 1922 Chair Sir Graham Brady is standing down and Labour should gain the seat.

Wakefield (63 seats):  Labour are dominant already (46 seats) and should make further gains in a patch of West Yorkshire where they won a big Westminster by-election victory not so long ago.

Wigan (75 seats): Labour already have 64 seats in a council they have controlled since creation. Conservatives are like dodos here – there’s two left after last year’s all-up election. They may not last long.  

Wolverhampton (60 seats): Labour hold 46 of the seats and will hope to regain some of the 5 seats lost in 2021. Worth watching also for hints about the West Midlands mayoral contest which reports the following day.

Conservative held councils The Conservatives are defending three metropolitan boroughs, all in the West Midlands Combined Authority. All of these are therefore additionally worth watching for hints about the West Midlands Mayoral election:

Dudley (72 seats) The Conservatives currently hold a majority, but all seats are up for election on new boundaries, so this is a golden opportunity for Labour to retake control in a key swing area with two Westminster target seats. 5 notional losses see the Conservatives lose control, 11 notional gains see Labour take control of this very Leave area for the first time since Brexit.

Solihull (51 seats) The Conservatives have a majority of four here, in a very blue bit of the West Midlands which has no Labour councillors. The Greens have been the local opposition here for a while, but have struggled to break out of their niche in the north and west of the borough. Five Tory seat losses looks unlikely, though not impossible – they lost five in 2019.

Walsall (60 seats) The Conservatives have a large majority here (37 seats) - Labour might have been in contention, but has lost eight councillors who resigned over Gaza, so now only has 12 seats. The Conservatives would have to lose 7 seats to lose control, and they’ve been pretty solid here in recent years.

No overall control: There are 3 Metropolitan Boroughs where no party currently has a majority. Third parties complicate Labour efforts to take charge in all three - in Bolton, where they are close, ReformUK are running a full slate of candidates. Sheffield has large groups of both Green and Lib Dem councillors, and a divided local Labour party. Stockport is split geographically and politically between Labour and a well entrenched Lib Dem group. Labour may gain Bolton but the other two look likely to remain divided.

Bolton (60 seats) Labour is the largest party with 28 out of 60 seats. Labour made seven gains here last year when the whole council was up for election and needs a further three to take control now – straightforward on paper but complicated by a messy local situation. Independent groupings who hold 8 seats are well entrenched in parts of the council, and ReformUK are standing a full slate here (as “ReformUK and Bolton for Change”). This should on balance hurt the Conservatives more than Labour, but its hard to know for sure.

Sheffield (84 seats) Labour is the largest party with 29 seats out of 84 and 28 are up for election.  The council is certain to stay in no overall control, but the Lib Dems will hope they can exploit divisions in the Labour group, which led to Labour suspending seven councillors last year, to overtake Labour as the largest party in Sheffield. The Greens have also been steadily advancing here.

Stockport (63 seats) The Lib Dems are the largest party with 29 seats out of 63 and 21 are up for election). Both Labour and the Lib Dems will fancy their chances here, but the deep geographical divides in Stockport voting make it hard for either to dominate. Labour have a lock on the North Western wards, but will struggle to advance in the South and East of the borough, where the Lib Dems are well dug in and have two Westminster target seats (including Hazel Grove, where scandal tainted Tory MP Will Wragg will be standing down). There are also some entrenched local independent groupings. Therefore likely to remain in no overall control.  

Unitary authorities

Of the 18 Unitary authorities up for election, 7 are held by Labour; 2 are held by the Conservatives; 1 is held by the Lib Dems; and 8 are currently in No Overall Control. Only a third of councillors are being elected in all but four of these 18 councils.

Most of the Labour held councils look safe, though there some local dramas. In Blackburn local discontent over Gaza could hurt Labour, while in Plymouth continued anger at the departed Conservative administration may help them advance further.

Blackburn with Darwen (51 seats) – The resignation of 7 councillors over Gaza has severely dented Labour’s local majority (down from 38 to 31 seats), and a large slate of independents is now seeking support from the local Muslim population, adding some uncertainty to what should be a comfortable hold. 

Halton (54 seats) – Labour hold 49 of 54 seats in this Liverpool City Region council. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Plymouth (57 seats) – Labour made big gains here last year and took control of the council after a scandal over the felling of some trees (ain’t local government marvellous?) – they have made further gains in by-elections since and will be looking to strengthen their hold now.

Reading (48 seats) – Labour will continue to dominate, but watch for Green gains

Southampton (51 seats) – Labour won a big majority last year when all seats were up due to boundary changes. Their aim will be to consolidate this time.

Swindon (57 seats) – Conservatives took a pasting here last year, when 10 gains for Labour gave them control of the council for first time since 1999. Lots of Tory seats up here again this year so Labour could make further big gains in an area with two Westminster target seats.

Warrington (58 seats) – holds all up elections every four years. Last ones were delayed and held in 2021 – a bad night for Labour saw them lose 10 seats and Conservative gain 9, though Labour remained in control of the council. Labour will aim to reverse that tide now.

Conservative held unitary authorities - the Tories could lose control of both of these, with the Lib Dems challenging hard for Dorset while Labour looks to oust them from the very Brexity red wall council of North East Lincolnshire

Dorset (82 seats) – for some reason Dorset elects all its councillors once every five years (at least until 2029 when they are going back to four years). The Conservatives won 42 of 82 seats in 2019, giving them a narrow majority of one.  The Lib Dems are their closest challengers in most seats, and currently hold 27 seats. It looks most likely to move to No Overall Control, but the Lib Dems could take control if they can make 15 gains from the Conservatives and others.

North East Lincolnshire (42 seats) is a very Brexity patch of coastline which includes the key ‘red wall’ Labour target of Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes. It is currently controlled by the Conservatives with 27 of the 42 seats, with 15 seats total up for election this time. The would need to lose 6 of those to lose control, which is possible though not likely – they lost three seats in 2023 and one seat in 2022.

Lib Dem held council

Hull (57 seats) – a straight Lib Dem vs Labour contest – the Lib Dems took this council in 2022, and made further gains here last year. Labour would need six gains to take control – a further Lib Dem advance looks more likely

No overall control unitary authorities - Lots of big contests to watch here. The battle for Bristol will be fascinating the Greens look to take charge of a big city where their top Westminster target is located; Hartlepool provides Keir Starmer a chance to avenge a painful 2021 defeat; Thurrock and Milton Keynes provide Labour with opportunities to take control in key general election battlegrounds, while Wokingham serves the same purpose for the Lib Dems.

Bristol (70 seats): The Greens are currently the largest party with 25 of the 70 councillors and all 70 are up for election this time (Labour are second with 23), making this one of the top contests to watch. Anoraks will be watching for any sign of tactical voting here as it is an engaged electorate, and the remaining 14 Conservative councillors are vulnerable on that basis. The Greens are targeting the council in part to build a platform for contesting the Labour held Westminster seat of Bristol Central. Their national co-leader and Bristol councillor Carla Denyer came second Iin the predecessor seat of Bristol West in 2019, and it is likely to be the party’s top target at the next contest.

Hartlepool (36 seats): One of the biggest prizes for Labour. On the day of the 2021 local elections, Labour lost Hartlepool to the Conservatives in a shock parliamentary by-election result. Winning the council back from No Overall Control would therefore be a symbolic statement for Keir Starmer and the party. Labour is currently the largest party with 17 of the 36 seats on the council and 12 seats up for election. They need to gain just two seats to win overall control. A repeat of last year’s performance, when they made five gains, would be enough. However, ReformUK could throw a spanner in the works – they are standing in every ward, and both UKIP and the Brexit party have done well in Hartlepool in the past.  This will also be among the first councils to declare so a win for Labour here, if paired with victory in the Blackpool South Westminster by-election, would set a powerful early narrative of Labour strength in the ‘Red Wall’. Past evidence suggests early impressions tend to last even if later results show a different picture.

Milton Keynes (57 seats): Labour are currently the largest party on the council with 27 of the 57 seats and 19 up for election. Labour gained five seats here in 2023, and now need just two more gains to win overall control here for the first time since 2000. Traditionally a swing part of the country – Labour will be targeting Westminster seats here in the general election.

Peterborough (60 seats): The Conservatives currently hold exactly half of the 60 seats and made gains last year against the tide, but the tougher national environment this time means they are likely to go backwards. Labour are the second largest party but well behind on 14 seats, so this is likely to end as a fragmented council in No Overall Control.

Portsmouth (42 seats): The Lib Dems are currently the largest party with 18 of the 42 seats, meaning they need to gain 4 seats to win overall control for the first time since 2014. More likely is that the Conservatives fall back at the expense of both the Lib Dems and Labour and the council remains in No Overall Control. The Conservatives will watch results in the northern wards closely, as party leadership contender Penny Mourdant represents Portsmouth North.

Southend-on-Sea (51 seats) – Conservatives are the largest party (22 seats) and have a lot of seats up this time. Labour need four gains to overtake them, and having gained five seats in last two years, that’s feasible, but this Essex council is all but certain to remain in no overall control.

Thurrock (49 seats): The Conservatives are currently the largest party with 23 seats out of the 49. Labour has 19 seats and need 3 gains from the Tories to become the largest party and 6 gains for overall control. Labour made five gains last year, so overall control does look within reach, and that would be a very good night for Labour in a strongly Leave voting area which was Labour at Westminster from 1997-2010 and where UKIP were once a major force. The Conservatives are helped by the surprising absence of any ReformUK candidates in what should be natural territory for the radical right insurgents.

Wokingham (54 seats): One of the big Lib Dem targets of the night. The Lib Dems are two seats short of taking control of the council with a notional 26 seats and all 54 seats are up for election following boundary changes. The Conservatives are the second largest party here with 22 seats. Psephologists will want to see if voters are moving to the Lib Dems from the Conservatives here, and if third place Labour voters are tactically backing the Lib Dems, because that has wider implications for a general election –the Lib Dems are targeting several Berkshire Tory seats, including John Redwood’s seat in this council.

District councils

Of the 58 District councils up for election, 11 are held by Labour; 11 by the Conservatives; 9 are held by the Lib Dems; and 27 are in No Overall Control.

Labour held councils – these are all likely to remain in Labour hands, but several are of interest due to general election implications. Crawley, Ipswich, Lincoln, Stevenage, Rossendale and Darwin, and Worthing are all swing areas Labour are targeting in the general election, while Cambridge and Exeter are worth watching for signs of a Green challenge on Labour’s left flank.

Cambridge (42 seats) – Labour will hold comfortably. Watch for Lib Dem and Green gains

Chorley (42 seats) – Labour are dominant, and with only 5 seats left to gain, only question is whether they can wipe Conservatives out and achieve a one party council in Speaker Linday Hoyle’s backyard

Crawley (36 seats) – Labour have a narrow majority here, which they would like to increase given the Crawley constituency is a key general election target

Exeter (39 seats) – Labour are dominant here (25 seats) but the Greens have been on the rise and will hope for more gains.

Ipswich (48 seats) – Labour are already dominant (33 seats) but will be keen to win back some of the seats they lost in 2021 given Ipswich constituency is a key Westminster target.

Lincoln (33 seats) – as with Ipswich, Labour already dominate (20 seats) but will want further gains as they target the Westminster contest to come.

Preston (48 seats) – Labour should increase their majority – the Westminster seat is already safe for them

Rossendale (30 seats) – all seats up due to boundary changes. Labour have large majority which they should retain. Jake Berry’s Rossendale and Darwen seat is a key target in the general election.

Stevenage (39 seats) – Stevenage Woman gets to elect an all-new council this year, with all seats up due to boundary changes. Labour have controlled this council since its creation, but will want to make seat gains as they target the Westminster seat, a classic swing constituency.

West Lancashire (45 seats) – Labour won a comfortable majority in an all-up election last year. Little change expected this year. South Ribble, in this authority, is a Westminster target.

Worthing (37 seats) – Labour took control in 2022 after 18 years of Tory rule as the spill over of young professionals from Brighton changes the character of this once true-blue bit of the south coast. Labour will hope for further advances this year as they target two Worthing seats – Worthing East and Shoreham, where Tim Loughton is standing down, and the rather safer Worthing West, where Father of the House Sir Peter Bottomly is looking to add to his 49 years in Parliament.

Conservative held councils There’s more uncertainty here than usual as quite a few of the Tory controlled councils have all their seats up this time, and are hence more vulnerable to a turning of the political tide. The only nailed on hold is Broxbourne where it is mathematically impossible for the Conservatives to lose control. Several of the other councils look out of reach in practice though.

Adur (29 seats total): The Conservatives are on 16 seats and lose control if they lose two seats, with 15 up for election. Labour are second on 9 seats. Labour made 2 gains and the Greens 1 gain when seats were last up here in 2022 – a similar result this time would see Conservatives lose control. The Westminster seat for this area is East Worthing and Shoreham, where Brexiteer MP Tim Loughton has just announced his retirement after 27 years. It’s a top Labour target requiring a 7 point swing.

Basildon (42 seats total) – all seats up due to boundary changes: Conservatives are on 25 seats and lose control if they lose 4 seats with all 42 seats up for election. Labour second on 10 seats but have not made gains here in the last two years. Only 1 Reform candidate standing in this former UKIP stronghold, a surprising absence which may help shore up Tory prospects here.

Broxbourne (30 seats) – Conservatives hold all but three seats. Their 50 year reign here will continue.

Epping Forest (54 seats total) – all seats up due to boundary changes, but with Lib Dems weak and Labour absent, seats are either safe for the Conservatives or contests between Tories and local residents groups. The Conservatives start with a substantial notional majority and should retain control.

Fareham (32 seats) – With all seats up, Lib Dems will hope for substantial gains, but this bit of Hampshire is blue enough that Tories will probably hold the council

Gloucester (39 seats total) – Gloucester elects its councillors all in won go: Labour got wiped out and Conservative too a majority in 2021 when it last voted.  Lib Dems are in second with 14 seats and could overtake Cons on a strong night. Labour got wiped out here in 2021 and will hope to recover some ground this week given the equivalent Westminster seat is a key Labour target.

Harlow (Con held, 33 seats total) – all seats up due to boundary changes: Conservatives on 21 seats and lose control if they lose 5, with Labour second on 12 seats. Labour have lost seats here in each of the last three years, so gains from Conservatives here would suggest a particularly strong night for Labour. The opposition will hope to regain this part of Essex in the general election - it had a Labour from 1997-2010 and the well-regarded Conservative incumbent Rob Halfon has announced he is standing down.

Havant (36 seats) – all seats up due to boundary changes – Conservatives lost 5 seats here last year and may lose rather more this time given it is an all-up contest, but the local Tories start with a large majority, so opposition parties havant much chance of unseating them from overall control.

Nuneaton and Bedworth (38 seats) – all up due to boundary changes – Tories start with a large notional majority – they should retain control but may lose quite a few seats. The Nuneaton constituency is a former swing seat which has trended heavily blue in recent years.

Redditch (27 seats) – all seats are up due to boundary changes: Conservatives on 16 seats and lose control if they lose 2, with Labour second on 12 seats. Labour made 5 gains here last year, and with everything up for grabs this time they should take control of the council for first time since 2018. A big win here will raise their hopes of recovering Jacqui Smith’s former constituency, which has swung heavily against them since they lost it in 2010.

Rushmoor (Con held, 39 seats total): Conservatives on 22 seats and lose control if they lose 3, with Labour in second on 14 seats.  13 seats up this time – Labour gained 5 last year, a similar performance this year means Cons lose control.

Lib Dem held councils – the rising tide for the Lib Dems in recent local election cycles mean most of these look fairly safe for the Lib Dems, but several are worth watching as they take place in areas the Lib Dems are targeting in the general election. Many of these areas are also worth watching for evidence of anti-Conservative tactical voting for the Lib Dems by Labour and Green supporters - there was plenty of this in last year’s local elections, and the more parties’ supporters co-ordinate the worse things will get for the Tories, now and in the general election to come.

Cheltenham (40 seats) – all seats up but Lib Dems have run this council since 2010 and have a large majority which they are certain to hold. The bigger prize comes later this year – Alex Chalk’s seat is one of the Lib Dems’ top Westminster targets.

Gosport (28 seat) –Lib Dems won a slender majority when the whole council was up last time due to boundary changes. They should hold on to it now given anti-Tory mood, but this is very blue territory traditionally. Lib Dems may need tactical votes from third placed Labour and Green supporters to keep the council.

Eastleigh (39 seats) – Lib Dem run for 30 years and now close to a one party state – Lib Dems hold 35 of 39 seats. They held the equivalent Westminster seat for 21 years and would dearly love to recover it – but doing so may require tactical votes from Labour supporters.

Mole Valley (39 seats) – the Lib Dems only took this council in 2019, and now have 30 out of 39 seats, including 6 gains last year. Only two Tory councillors left in a council which had a Con majority in 2018. Most of the Mole Valley wards go into the new Westminster seat of Dorking and Horley. The Lib Dems made a massive leap forward in the predecessor seat of Mole Valley in 2019, and will regard Dorking and Horley as a top target next time. Veteran Tory MP Paul Beresford represented Mole Valley from 1997 but is standing down rather than contesting the new seat.

St Albans (56 seats) – Lib Dems nearly tripled their representation from 17 seats in 2016 to 50 in 2022. The Greens took a couple of seats from them last year and will look to do so again. Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper gained St Albans constituency in 2019 – some of the council wards are also in the newly created Harpenden and Berkhamstead constituency, which is theoretically a target for the Lib Dems, but may be a bridge too far.

Three Rivers (39 seats) – Lib Dems have run the council since 1986, and have held a majority since 2018, though the current majority of 2 is quite narrow. The Greens have made gains here in each of the last two contests.

Watford (36 seats) – Lib Dem run since 2003, it is mathematically impossible for Lib Dems to lose control here (they have 27 seats now). Watford’s Westminster seat is very different – a Conservative held Labour top target where the Lib Dems are a distant third (and where Labour will hope a tactical squeeze will help put them over the top).

Winchester (45 seats) – Lib Dems have a large majority and will be looking to make further gains from the Conservatives ahead of the general election – Winchester constituency was Lib Dem from 1997-2010 and is a top target for the party next time.

Woking (30 seats) – the Lib Dems took control in 2022 and after further big gains in 2023 are now dominant. They will want to further press home their advantage as they are targeting the Woking Westminster seat – where they may need to tactically squeeze Labour votes to win.

No Overall Control councils – many of these are too fragmented for any party to plausibly take a majority, but there are some opposition pickup opportunities to watch out for here, particularly when boundary changes mean all seats are up.

Basingstoke and Deane (54 seats total) – The Conservatives lost control here in 2023, and are likely to lose more seats this year. The opposition is fragmented, so it will remain NOC.

Brentwood (39 seats total) – all seats up due to boundary changes: A key Lib Dem target. The Conservatives are on 18 seats and Lib Dems on 17 seats with 20 needed for control of the council. The Lib Dems have gained seats in each of the last two years and should therefore take the council on recent form. Tactical voting by third place Labour voters could swing the outcome in a rural bit of Essex where the Conservatives got nearly 70% of the vote in the last Westminster election.

Burnley (45 seats total) – Labour should be cruising to overall control here, but the Gaza conflict literally split the Labour group in half, with the council leader quitting along with 10 colleagues. The result is a very fragmented council – 11 Labour, 11 Burnley independent group, 8 Conservative, 7 Lib Dem, 1 independent. Will certainly remain NOC, but worth watching vote patterns closely in wards with large Muslim populations.

Cannock Chase (36 seats total) – all seats up due to boundary changes: Labour need to gain just one (notional) seat of the 36 up for election to win control. Both Labour and the Greens have made gains since 2021. The Westminster Cannock Chase seat has seen a 35-point Lab to Con swing since 1997, the second largest in the country (after Ben Bradley’s Mansfield seat).

Castle Point (39 seats) – this independent minded, Brexity patch of Essex where UKIP were once strong is now divided between two rival groups of independents – the Canvey Island Independents and the People’s Independent Party. Local elections will remain resolutely local here.

Cherwell (48 seats) – Conservatives lost their majority on this Oxfordshire council last year after 23 years in charge. Labour, the Lib Dems and Greens all made gains here and all will hope to advance further this year. The main question is whether Labour (12 seats now) or the Lib Dems (10 seats) end up as the second largest party.

Colchester (51 seats) – an even three way split between Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems here means no one has had overall control for 16 years. Recent contests have been pretty static so the stalemate is likely to continue. Watch for any evidence of Labour gaining from Lib Dems though – Colchester constituency used to be a Lib Dem seat but is now a key Labour target.

Elmbridge (48 seats total): Currently a three way split between Lib Dems (19), Residents (17) and Cons (12) The Lib Dems have made 9 gains in total over last two years, and need another 5 gains this year to take control of a Surrey council which they have never run since its 1974 creation. The Westminster seat for this area is Dominic Raab’s Esher and Walton – one of the Lib Dems’ top targets.

Hart (33 seats) – a stable three way split between Lib Dems, Cons and a local community party is likely to continue.

Hastings (32 seats) – Labour would have been in a good position to take this council, but eight Labour councillors quit over arguments with the national party. Labour may make some gains, and Greens also on the rise, but this will remain NOC. Hastings and Rye is a key Westminster target for Labour.

Hyndburn (35 seats total): Labour and Conservatives are currently tied on 16 seats. They need to gain 2 seats for control of the council and gained 3 seats last year so a repeat performance would do it. Worth watching for any Labour under-performance with Muslim voters – 15% of the population is Muslim according to 2021 census. The equivalent Westminster seat (also Hyndburn) is a key Red Wall target.

Maidstone (49 seats) – all seats up due to boundary changes. Multiple parties gained at Tory expense last year, and the same thing will likely happen on a larger scale this year, with all seats up. With opposition fragmented, the Tories are likely to remain the largest party on a NOC council.

North Hertfordshire (51 seats) – Labour became the largest party last year. They would need seven gains to take control here for first time since 1999, which looks a stretch, but with all seats up due to boundary changes, you never know. A strong performance, and a squeeze on the Lib Dems, would build confidence that North East Hertfordshire, where veteran Con MP Sir Oliver Heald is standing down, might be in reach. Labour need a 16.5 point swing to take the seat.

Norwich (NOC, 39 seats total): Labour, on 19 seats, have lost control due to the resignation of four councillors last November. The part needs to gain 1 seat to take back overall control, which should be feasible with only one of the four independents standing again. The Greens are the local opposition here and have been making gains in recent cycles – they will hope to profit from the local turmoil.

Oxford (NOC, 48 seats total): Both local and international affairs complicate matters for Labour in Oxford. The party lost control of Oxford council last October, when 9 Labour councillors resigned the whip in protest at the party’s policy in Gaza. But there is also an “Oxford Independent Alliance” mobilising local discontent over low traffic networks. There is a substantial Muslim population here also – 9% of the total. Results here will provide some insights into Labour’s ability to hold the line with both young progressives and Muslims, though they will require careful inspection to avoid mislabelling local hostility to LTNs as something broader.  Half the seats are up and Labour needs at least 3 gains to win back control.

Pendle (33 seats) – another authority where internal troubles are likely to cost Labour a council gain. The entire Labour group including the council leader quit in April over arguments with the national party and now run the council as independents. Labour may regain some of these seats but the council will remain NOC. Worth watching voting patterns in areas with large Muslim populations. Pendle constituency is a key Labour Westminster target.

Reigate and Banstead (45 seats) – Conservatives lost control of their last Surrey council earlier this year when one of their councillors quit. The Greens are the strongest local opposition here and will look to make further gains this year. Will remain NOC.

Rochford (39 seats) – The Conservatives are in freefall in this Essex council – they have lost half of their councillors in two years, lost control of the council, and will lose more seats this year, but with opposition fragmented this will stay NOC.

Rugby (42 seats) – Conservatives lost their majority here last year, and will lose more seats this year, but with opposition split evenly between Lab and Lib Dems, this will remain NOC. Labour will hope for a strong local performance - they need a 13 point swing to take the Rugby Westminster seat from Cons. They last held Rugby during the New Labour years.

Runneymede (41 seats)  - Conservatives lost control of this Surrey council last year after 25 years in charge. Non-tory seats are split between five different parties and groupings. More Tory losses to the patchwork quilt of local opponents look certain.

Stroud (51 seats) – Holds all out elections every four years. Last result was a three way split, but ten of Labour’s original 15 councillors now sit as independents (most left due to pre Gaza arguments with national party, though one left recently over Gaza). Labour’s disarray leaves the Greens as the second largest party and in charge of the council. They have a shot at overtaking the Conservatives this time.

Tamworth (30 seats) – Conservatives lost control last year, and as they won a clean sweep in 2021 they can only go further backwards this year. Labour need six gains to take control – they made eight gains last May and then enjoyed a spectacular Westminster by-election win on a 24 point in October. Taking control of the council for the first time in 20 years will boost Labour confidence they can hold the Westminster seat at the general election. 

Tandridge (43 seats) – Lib Dems and local independents likely to continue gaining as Conservatives decline. All seats up due to boundary changes, but fragmentation means it will very likely remain NOC. 

Tunbridge Wells (39 seats) – The symbolic home of grumpy Tory letter writers (“disgusted of Tunbridge Wells”) fell out of Conservative hands in 2021. The Lib Dems are now comfortably the largest party, and with all seats up this time, have a shot at taking overall control for the first time since 1998.

Welwyn Hatfield (48 seats) – Conservatives lost four seats and control of the council last year. Further losses this year are very likely. Labour will want to emerge as the largest party here: Grant Shapps’ Westminster seat is a key Labour target.

West Oxfordshire (49 seats): The Lib Dems are the largest party with 17 seats and need 25 seats to take overall control. This is a stretch when only 17 seats are up for election, though the Lib Dems have gained eight seats in the last two years, and now need another eight. The Conservatives have fallen from 41 seats in 2016 to just 16 now, and on a bad night they could fall to third place behind Labour who are currently on 10. Watch for Lib Dem gains and evidence of a squeeze in Labour voting here as it could have general election implications – the Lib Dems require a 10-point swing and a successful Labour vote squeeze to take David Cameron’s former seat of Witney, which covers the same territory as West Oxfordshire.

Worcester (39 seats) – both the Greens and Labour have advanced here in recent years as the Conservatives have fallen back. With all seats up due to boundary changes, either party could emerge as largest party, though neither is likely to take overall control. Worcester is a key Westminster target for Labour.

That completes the Big Preview! You are now fully equipped to enjoy the marathon three day festival of vote counting which will kick off in the small hours of Friday night and run all the way into Sunday. If you have any questions, spot any errors or think there’s anything I’ve missed, please let me know. One last treat - I asked the AI to imagine the election count as a Glastonbury style festival - here what it came up with. I’d be quite up for this, personally.