The Gorton and Denton by-election: a tale of two Manchesters?

Unpopular incumbent + fragmented opposition + unusual seat = unpredictable contest

The resignation of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds has triggered a February 26th by-election in the South Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton. The contest has already made national news for several days running, when King of the North Greater Manchester mayor (and King over the Water for Starmer critics) Andy Burnham signalled he would like to run in the seat, only to be blocked by Labour’s National Executive Committee. With discontent running high in the governing party, the final Thursday in February has now become a red letter date for supporters and opponents of the leadership alike.

But by-elections follow their own logic, not Westminster narratives, and Gorton and Denton has all the makings of a classic contest - a divided seat, polarising candidates and four different parties with a credible local claim. And all of this is right on your correspondent’s doorstep - this seat is next door to my own seat of Manchester Withington. I drive through it every week to shop in the Burnage Tesco and regularly sip craft ale in the hipster pubs of Levenshulme.

Gorton and Denton seat map

Seat demographics: A tale of two (South) Manchesters

Gorton and Denton is a bit of a Frankenstein’s monster, formed ahead of the last general election when remnants of the abolished Manchester Gorton seat were stitched onto a chunk of the also abolished Denton and Reddish seat (Gwynne’s previous seat) with Burnage ward, formerly in Manchester Withington, chucked on at the South West edge for good measure. The seat has the fourth highest index of change - a measure of the churn in its voters from boundary changes - in the North West region.

Some famous former Longsight/Burnage residents¹ are commemorated on a mural on Fog Lane, which forms part of the seat’s southern border. The mural is on the side of Sifter’s Records - “Mr Sifter, sold me songs, when I was just 16, now he stops at traffic lights, but only when they’re green…”

Shaped a bit like a battle axe or warhammer, with the handle running South West through diverse and gentrifying South Manchester wards in Manchester city council, and the head of the axe/hammer running into the three wards of the Tameside council town of Denton. The two halves of the seat are a study in demographic contrasts, a tale of two Manchesters on opposite edges of Labour’s unravelling electoral coalition.

Demographic differences: Tameside and Manchester wards of Gorton and Denton

The four Manchester wards running down the axe handle are on average 42% white and 40% Muslim, with 42% of the population either a university graduate or a current university student. In other words, these wards are full of exactly the kinds of voters Labour has been losing in the last couple of years to the Greens (urban graduates/students) and to the Workers Party and Gaza independents (Muslims).

The three Tameside wards forming the head of the axe are on average 83% white, 86% UK born, and 30% in routine or semi-routine jobs (one definition of working class). In other words, exactly the kinds of places where Labour might worry about a Reform challenge.

But there is a wrinkle. These two chunks of the seat are not equally matched - the Manchester wards had 55,000 registered electors in them in the 2024 locals, while the Tameside wards had just 26,000. So the balance of electoral power splits about 2:1 in favour of the more diverse, graduate and urban liberal heavy Manchester wards.

Electoral history

The election history of Gorton and Denton could be summed up as “deep red but fading”. Labour won 50.8% in 2024, making the seat one of just 70 where Labour won an absolute majority in 2024,² but this share was down sharply on an estimated 67.2% in 2019. Labour’s 16.5 point drop in the seat was one of the party’s ten worst performances in the North West, while three nearby seats in central/south Manchester - Manchester Rusholme, Manchester Central and Manchester Withington - also suffered drops of 13 points or more. All of those seats contain - like the Manchester council wards of this seat - large numbers of Muslim voters, graduates and students (a major driver of this is that two of the largest universities in the country - the University of Manchester, where I work, and Manchester Metropolitan University are located in this part of the city).

The Conservatives also fell sharply in Gorton and Denton in 2024, losing more than half of their vote and falling from 18.9% and a clear second place to 7.9% and fifth place. Reflecting the general Tory to Reform swing on the right, this 11 point drop was almost matched by a 10 point rise for Reform UK from 4.9% to 14.8%. The combined Tory/Reform “right bloc” vote thus barely budged - it was 23.8% in 2019 and 22.7% in 2024. Reform’s performance here was well below that achieved in less diverse seats on the outer fringes of Greater Manchester.

There was more action within the ‘left bloc’ as both the Greens and the Worker’s Party made major gains at Labour’s expense in 2024. The Green vote increased by more than 10 points to 13.2%, their fourth best performance in both share and change terms in Greater Manchester, bested only by even larger swings in the other three South Manchester seats. The Worker’s Party won 10.3%, making the seat one of six in the North West where the George Galloway fronted outfit got a double digit share, all of which have substantial (20% or more) Muslim communities.

2019 and 2024 election results in Gorton and Denton

Dark bars on left - 2019 notional results (Rallings and Thrasher); light bars on right - 2024 results

The earlier electoral history of Gorton and Denton’s predecessor seats is very red, and features some prominent Labour names. Manchester Gorton was Labour for all but four years from 1906 to its abolition in 2024, and was represented during the war by William Benn (father of Tony, and grandfather of Hilary) and from 1983 to his death in 2017 by Gerald Kaufman, who famously referred to his party’s 1983 manifesto as “the longest suicide note in history.” Kaufman was replaced by Afzhal Khan, who now represents the successor seat of Manchester Rusholme. The only time the Labour vote in Gorton dropped below 50% from 1935 to 2019 was in a 1967 by-election when the Conservatives put up Winston Churchill (grandson of the other Winston Churchill) and came within 600 votes of an upset.

The Conservatives have been fading away in Gorton for over 40 years. They fell below 20% of the vote in 1992, and below 10% in 2001. The Liberal Democrats moved into second place in 1997 and mobilising anger about the Iraq war, they won a third of the vote in 2005 and 2010, but collapsed in Gorton (as in many Labour areas) in 2015 and never recovered. UKIP’s best performance here was 8.2% and fourth place in 2015, while in the same election the Greens managed 9.8% and second place, their best showing until 2024.

Denton and Reddish, the other main predecessor seat, is a more recently created seat, first appearing in 1983, and Labour’s vote was under 50% in the first two elections contested there, but from 1992 to abolition the party’s vote never dropped below 50%. The local MP was Andrew Bennett, who spent most of his 31 years in the Commons on the backbenches before the current MP Andrew Gwynne took over in 2005. The Conservative vote here fell to 21% in 1997 and remained below 30% until the final election before abolition, 2019 when it hit 34%. UKIP managed 18.7% in 2015, enough for third place, while the Greens never won more than 4% in the area.

Manchester Withington, which provided about 16% of the current electorate in this seat, was once a middle class Tory marginal, but trended strongly red from the 1980s to 2005, when the Liberal Democrats successfully mobilised a coalition of Muslims and middle class liberals to defeat Labour. It is perhaps no coincidence that the only member of Labour’s NEC committee to vote in favour of letting Andy Burnham stand was Deputy Leader Lucy Powell, who was the defeated Labour candidate in Manchester Withington in 2010.

The local election history of the seat is also quite different in the two halves. Labour have dominated the Denton wards for decades. Although the demographics look somewhat Farage friendly, UKIP never won any of them, coming closest with a couple of second place finishes between 2014 and 2016. UKIP never appeared on the ballot in Denton after 2016, and neither the Brexit Party nor Reform have ever fielded local elections candidates there.

The Greens have had a more consistent presence on the local ballot in the Denton wards, and while they have never come close to winning any of them, they have done rather better in the last couple of elections than previously - including breaking 30% in Denton North West in 2024 (a result assisted by being the only other party on the ballot to Labour).

It is a different story in the Manchester wards, which Labour lost when in government in the 2000s, and where they faced some serious setbacks in the 2024 local elections held two months before Starmer entered Downing Street. All of these wards (or their predecessors) fell to the Lib Dems in 2003, part of a wave of gains the party made in Muslim areas by mobilising opposition to the Iraq war. Labour won them all back at the start of the Coalition, if not before, and rebuilt huge majorities in opposition.

But Muslim unrest again manifested in 2024, when the Labour vote fell sharply in three of the four wards. While the Greens made substantial gains, the main beneficiaries of these dramatic swings were George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain (WPB), who mobilised Muslim voters’ discontent to make major gains, and achieve a stunning upset in Muslim majority Longsight, where the WPB candidate Shabhaz Sarwar defeated Labour’s Deputy Mayor Luthfur Rahman.

Changes in Labour, Green and Workers’ Party of Britain vote in the Manchester council wards of Gorton and Denton 2021-24

The contenders

The upshot of all of this is we have a by-election where four different parties have a credible shot at victory, with Reform on the right aiming for a second by-election gain of the Parliament, while three parties on the left all aiming to convince voters they are the strongest anti-Reform option available.

The right - a heavy lift for Reform

The first question anyone asks at the moment about almost any election is “Can Reform win it?” Reform can point to a national polling lead, stunning success in last May’s local elections and in particular the gain of Runcorn and Helsby, another Labour stronghold in the North West, in the last Westminster by-election, to make the case that they are now the main opposition to Labour in England.

But though Reform have gained a lot of ground in the national polls, they may find Gorton and Denton, where they start 36 points behind Labour, a tough nut to crack. Reform poll poorly among young voters, university graduates, and ethnic minorities - all groups found in large numbers in this seat’s Manchester wards. The three Denton wards have a more Reform-friendly profile but Denton makes up just a third of the seat’s total electorate. There is no history of radical right success in any of these wards, and Reform likely begin with next to no organisational presence in the seat, having stood no candidates here in 2024.

This is also just not an area very open to voting for right wing politicians of any stripe. The Conservatives have not won any of these wards for decades, nor did UKIP manage any ward gains here at their peak. The combined right bloc vote in 2024 was just 22.4% - whereas in Runcorn and Helsby, which Reform gained, it was 34.1% (18.1% Reform, 16.0% Tory). There was a plausible path to victory for Reform in Runcorn just through consolidating the right vote. There is no such path for Reform in Gorton and Denton.

Everything would have to go Reform’s way if they are to win here. They will need a massive swing from Labour on high turnout in the more demographically friendly Denton wards and a fragmented left vote on a low turnout in the Manchester wards, to offset their greater electoral weight.³ Threading this needle is possible but not easy, and they may have made life harder for themselves with their choice of candidate, former academic and GB News pundit Matthew Goodwin.

As many Swingometer readers will know, Matthew and I have a history - we worked together a lot as young postdoctoral researchers in Manchester⁴, culminating in a well received book on the rise of UKIP - “Revolt on the Right.” More recently, I have criticised Matthew’s misrepresentation of evidence and statistics and his use of irresponsible and polarising rhetoric on difficult issues. I have not worked with him professionally or been in contact with him socially in a long time. While I can’t erase our personal history, I will do my best to assess his candidacy objectively - I leave it to readers to decide whether I am successful.

Still a good book, IMHO

Goodwin brings one big strength and two big weaknesses to the Reform campaign. He has a high media profile, and will likely be at least somewhat familiar to many Reform curious voters through his GB News show and regular media appearances elsewhere. He has a Substack with a very large readership, which may provide a valuable organisational resource for his campaign (not many candidates have access to such a huge personal email list from day one). These are valuable resources for a party with little or no organisational presence and no electoral history in the seat.

However, while he is a polished and experienced media communicator, Goodwin is also an electoral novice. He has not stood for any elected office anywhere, nor been directly involved in the running of any election campaign (though he has researched a few). He will know next to nothing about the nuts and bolts of canvassing, leaflet delivery, doorstep messaging, information gathering and so on, and will therefore have to lean heavily on a young party which is still learning the ropes itself on such matters.

Goodwin’s electoral inexperience brings with it a second problem for Reform - he has, to put it mildly, a message discipline issue. Over the past couple of years he has made a very long list of incendiary comments about immigration, identity and, in particular, Britain’s Muslim communities. Some of this may play well with his core audience on GB News and Substack, but bringing in wavering voters to build a broader electoral coalition requires a more emollient and tactful approach. While Nigel Farage has sought to blunt the edges of his more provocative ideas by presenting voters with a jovial pub regular persona.

That hasn’t been Goodwin’s approach. Statements such as “It makes more than a piece of paper to make someone British” and “we need to stop migration into the UK from Islamic nations” may well cause concern among wavering Labour voters considering Reform in Denton, and will likely outrage many of the Muslim voters and young white graduates in the Manchester wards of the seat. Given that Reform need to maximise motivation in Denton and also maximise apathy and division in the Manchester wards, a candidate more likely than most to generate outrage and encourage voters to unite against Reform seems a strategic error.

The Left: a house divided will not stand

Gorton and Denton is a seat where nearly four fifths of the 2024 vote went to left bloc parties, and the left have dominated all local elections for decades. The electoral case for Andy Burnham was simply this - Greater Manchester’s most popular and highest profile politician was the blindingly obvious candidate for uniting the left vote, so picking him would make the seat an easy Labour hold. Now he is off the ballot things are more complicated, as three different parties can now claim to be the left’s standard bearer against Reform.

On paper, Labour’s claim should still be the strongest. They have won every general election in this seat and its predecessors for generations. They have won almost every local election in all the seat’s wards since 2011. This is a Labour leaning seat in a Labour leaning city in a Labour leaning region. Even Winston Churchill (Jr) couldn’t beat Labour here, so surely they are the party best placed to see off Reform?

Alas things are not so simple for a governing party polling below 20%, led by the most unpopular Prime Minister in polling history, a Prime Minister who has particularly struggled with young progressives and Muslim voters. Labour’s vote already fell sharply here in both the 2024 general election and the 2024 locals, as both Muslim voters and younger graduates in the Manchester wards registered their discontent with a party seemingly more interested in listening to Reform voters than listening to them.

A one note “stop Reform” Labour campaign therefore risks backfiring for the incumbent party, reinforcing suspicions and amplifying anger among voter groups who believe Labour is not listening and has nothing to offer. Labour will need a strong candidate with a positive message addressing the concerns of Muslim communities and progressive voters alike if it is to consolidate the left and see off the right.

Labour will certainly face a strong challenge from the Greens, who will hope that a radical left message on domestic and foreign policy will make them the obvious vehicle for discontent among young progressives and Muslims. An influx of new members will help the Greens mount a stronger challenge on the ground than previously, and they will hope that greater organisational heft, Zack Polanski’s strong media profile, and growing strength in national polling will give them the critical mass to do to Labour in Gorton and Denton what Plaid Cymru did to Labour in Caerphilly - convince disaffected Labour voters that they can have their cake and eat it - that the Greens can both be a vehicle for discontent with the direction of Labour nationally and the best vehicle for stopping Reform locally.

But the Greens face obstacles in Gorton and Denton that Plaid did not in Caerphilly. The Plaid candidate in Caerphilly, Lyndsay Whittle, was an exceptionally high profile figure - he had been on the council for thirty years, and twice led it, and had stood for Plaid in every Westminster election since 1983 and every Senedd election since the institution’s foundation in 1999. Whittle faced no meaningful competition for the left vote, and was uniquely well placed to win over the disaffected Labour vote wholesale.

The Greens are unlikely to have a candidate of similar stature, and are certain to face greater competition for disgruntled Labour voters from the Worker’s Party of Britain, whose candidate has already been announced as Shabhaz Sarwar, the Longsight councillor who defeated Labour’s deputy council leader on a huge swing in 2024. Sarwar clearly has a strong profile in the Longsight Muslim community, and is likely to receive noisy backing from the Worker’s Party leader, perennial populist polariser George Galloway.

The Worker’s Party are unlikely to win in Gorton and Denton - the Muslim population is not large enough and the party has little appeal beyond it - but they can easily play spoiler, taking a large enough slice off the Muslim electorate to make a Green or Labour win harder, and a Reform win easier. Their approach to campaigning make them hard to deal with. Galloway has proved perfectly happy to make toxic and polarising allegations to discredit his rivals in past contests. Perhaps the Workers Party candidate in Manchester, mindful of his own local political future, will keep Galloway quiet or at arms length. But perhaps not.

However the Workers Party choose to prosecute their campaign, they are a problem for both of their left opponents, who cannot afford a three way split. The Greens have a head start in solving this problem as the campaigning organisation The Muslim Vote, who have supported successful independent Muslim candidacies and are perhaps conscious of the hazards of a split Muslim vote in this seat, have already endorsed the party without even waiting for them to pick a candidate. The Greens’ stances on Palestine and on domestic politics, and their anti-Labour populism, also put them closer to the typical WPB curious voter than Labour, the locally and nationally dominant party such voters are typically railing against.

What might happen and what will it mean?

While many things are uncertain in this fragmented and fascinating contest, one thing is not - a defeat for Labour would be an electoral and political disaster for the Starmer government, regardless of who inflicts it. This would be the second time in less than a year that Labour loses a seat it has held for over a century, and the second time in less than a year that Labour loses one of the 70 seats where it started with an absolute majority. Results like that are not “typical mid-term blues” they are signs of an existential crisis. The political fallout could be severe, as the drumbeat of defeat in once rock solid areas leads ever more Labour members and MPs to worry about the party’s future viability.

Yet there is a silver lining to the government’s current dire polling. Many already expect Labour to lose, which will help cushion the blow of defeat if it comes, but also means that victory in a seat which should be an easy hold - and may yet prove to be - will come as a surprise. A result which looks like a triumph against the odds would buy the leadership some breathing space, even if such expectations are misleading.

Reform have the opposite dilemma. They really have no business even being in the running in this seat, which is not at all favourable to them demographically or politically, so a strong second place ought to be a triumph. Yet Farage fever is running at such a high pitch that even a close second, on any metric a remarkable result, will be treated as a setback, and may trigger a wave of “have Reform peaked?” stories from journalists already bored of the “relentless rise of Farage” narrative.

For the Workers Party the election seems to me a contest with little plausible upside. Of course, if they win it will be a huge story, but while Galloway’s outfits have delivered upsets before, the Muslim population does not look large or unified enough to make a win here plausible when another viable outlet for progressive discontent is available. The scenarios where they face criticism as spoilers look far more plausible than the scenarios where they win outright.

The route to victory for the Greens looks more straightforward - they are best placed to mobilise and unify the disparate voter groups unhappy with Labour in this seat, and if they can do so then a winning coalition is there for the taking. If the Greens achieved this it would simultaneously announce their arrival on the scene as a serious electoral force in Labour heartlands, and demonstrate that Labour’s Caerphilly collapse was not a one off.

A Green victory over Reform, with Labour third, is perhaps the most dangerous result of all for the current leadership. Starmer’s team are already framing the next election as an existential fight with Reform. How long can they survive if the voters of South Manchester, like those of South Wales, decide they want someone other than Labour to lead that fight?

1. After some careful Google Maps sifting, I am fairly certaint that the Gallagher brothers’ childhood home (Cranwell Drive, Burnage) was in this seat. Perhaps they have a view on the by-election contenders?

2. Over a third of the seats where Labour won an absolute majority in 2024 - 24 of 70 - are in the North West - making the region second only to London (25 seats) on this measure of local Labour dominance. 13 of these are in Merseyside, including all of the top ten highest Labour vote shares, reflecting Labour’s extraordinary dominance of that urban area. Greater Manchester has seven. Labour also won an absolute majority in 2024 in Runcorn and Helsby (52.9%), the seat narrowly lost to Reform in a by-election last May.

3. It would make Reform’s task easier if they could also pick up some support in the Manchester council wards of the seat. While the appeal of the party is low there given the demographics, it is unlikely to be zero. For three of the Manchester wards (Burnage, Levenshulme and Longsight) we have no way of gauging that appeal as neither Reform nor either of its predecessor parties, UKIP and the Brexit party, has ever stood a candidate. UKIP did stand candidates in one of the predecessors to the Gorton and Abbey Hey ward - Gorton South - between 2012 and 2015, with a best showing of 19% in 2014.

4. One of these early pieces of work was a 2011 report and presentation to Tameside council on the far right threat in their area and how to combat it.