The attention of the political class will for once be focussed on Scotland next Friday, as the results of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election are announced in the brief interlude between Conservative and Labour conferences. The seat will provide the first test of Scottish Labour’s ability to take on the SNP, a test with wider implications for the general election to come. If we take an average of the most recent polls by the six pollsters who survey Scotland regularly, the SNP, who have dominated all elections since the independence referendum of 2014, are down by an average of 8 points on their 2019 performance. Scottish Labour, moribund since their collapse in 2015, are up no less than 14 points. Taken together, this points to an 11 point SNP to Labour swing. This is the yardstick to judge the Rutherglen result against - the seat only requires a five point swing to fall so it should fall to Labour easily. And a big win now could raise hopes of big swings to come.
Current Scottish polling (6 pollster average)
Source: Most recent published Scottish Westminster vote intention polls from YouGov, Redfield & Wilton, Survation, SavantaComRes, IPSOS-MORI and PanelBase
Recovery in Scotland is a big deal for Labour in the general election and beyond. Gains in Scotland will lower the bar for Labour victory. There are 16 seats which, on old boundaries, Labour would gain from the SNP on a swing of just over 10 points. These gains would shave a couple of points off the Conservative to Labour swing required in England and Wales for Labour to achieve a majority. This could prove vital given the scale of the task at hand: Labour need to achieve a bigger swing outside Scotland than it managed in the 1997 landslide just to get a bare majority. A dozen or more extra Scottish seats could tip the balance.
There are also two factors which could help Scottish Labour do even better than the current polling suggests. The departure of Nicola Sturgeon seems to have prompted a wave of retirements from the party’s Westminster benches - 8 SNP MPs have already announced they are standing down, including the party’s young firebrand Mhari Black, who became the youngest MP elected since 1832 when she defeated Labour’s Douglas Alexander in 2015, and will depart the Commons a victorious veteran of 3 general elections still under 30. Incumbent MPs often accrue a personal vote, which is lost when they depart, so the wave of retirements may make a number of seats more competitive.
Secondly, with the SNP buffeted in recent times by scandal, and the Scottish Conservatives moribund in the polls (currently down an average of 8 points on 2019), there is a chance Scottish Labour may benefit from unionist or anti-incumbent tactical voting. Disgruntled Conservative or Liberal Democrat leaning voters who either prioritise the union, or are simply fed up with the SNP’s dominance of Scottish politics, may be willing to back Scottish Labour as the party best placed to defeat the nationalists. For example, there are 15 seats where the SNP’s lead over Labour is currently 20-30 points. Labour would fall short in most of these seats on current swings, but could take many of them with the assistance of tactical votes from Conservative and/or Lib Dem unionists.
The outcome for Scotland will also matter for the Parliament to come after the next election. A diminished SNP Westminster cohort will be less likely to hold the balance of power in the next Commons. A heavy defeat to Labour may also make Scottish Nationalists more eager to find common ground with a national Labour government, particularly if this defeat comes in part due to unionist tactical voting. A resurgence for Scottish Labour in Westminster elections would also impact on both parties’ plans for the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections, when the SNP will be looking to return to office once again after 19 years in charge.
The centrality of the Scottish Parliament elections in Scottish political life also underscores another reason Scotland matters - it marches to the beat of a different drum, meaning Labour’s fate there is not strongly tied to its fate elsewhere in Britain. This has been true for a while. The huge swing from Labour to the SNP in 2015 that meant Labour lost Commons seats despite a substantial Conservative to Labour swing in England and Wales. In 2017, Theresa May owed her survival in office to the gains her party in Scotland, even as it was floundering elsewhere. Without a dozen extra Scottish seats, May would not have been able to secure a majority with DUP support, and might have fallen from office.
Changes in Labour and Conservative vote in England and Scotland, 2015 and 2017 general elections
Source: Cowley and Kavanagh (2015) “The British General Election of 2015”, Cowley and Kavanagh (2017) “The British General Election of 2017”
Scotland’s distinctive politics may once help tip the balance in elections after 2024. If the SNP’s current crisis intensifies, the party could eventually face the kind of anti-incumbent wave which is currently overwhelming the Conservatives at Westminster. By 2026, the Scottish nationalists will have had a longer spell in office (19 years) than either Westminster party has since the introduction of the universal franchise. If and when that run finally comes to an end, Scottish Labour are the best place opposition, and success in Holyrood could spill over into a further advance at the following Westminster contest. Further seats gained from the SNP in 2028 or 2029 could help Labour offset losses in England and Wales, reversing the pattern of 2015. The Scottish nationalist tide could be as consequential for Labour going out as it was coming in.
Thks Bob, brilliant and important work
Get’s forgotten at times, facts matter
Next Friday not this Friday?