The first post here at the Swingometer went out almost exactly a year ago. This project started as a lifeboat from the storm troubled X/Twitter, an alternative home for analysis in case the main hub for politics junkies collapsed.
While Twitter has staggered on, I have found I like the longer format of Substack, which feels like a revival of the old political blogging ecosystem from a decade or more ago. It seems some of you like reading longer pieces too, with over 2,500 signing up in the first year. Many thanks to all of you for your support.
Longer posts do take more time, so I haven’t been able to replicate my prodigous Twitter output here. But I hope lower output is offset by higher polish. Twitter feels like a notebook where I jot down thoughts as they happen. Substack feels more like a newspaper column where I polish them up into something (hopefully) more considered and coherent.
The first year’s top three posts
The three most popular posts so far this year have all dealt in different ways with the Conservatives’ current troubles. In March I looked at the problems with Rishi Sunak’s “Stop the Boats” pledge. I think the analysis holds up:
“‘Stop the boats’ focuses public and media attention on an pledge that can’t be delivered, on an issue where 80% of voters disapprove of the government’s track record, and which 80% of voters don’t see as a priority. If the government sees this as the best possible use of its agenda setting power, it is truly in deep trouble.”
Later that month I took a look at whether Tory fortunes were recovering under Rishi Sunak - “In a few short months, Rishi Sunak has recovered most of the support lost by Liz Truss in a few short weeks. This is no small achievement given the scale of last autumn’s collapse. Yet it is also nowhere near enough. Making more headway will require progress on the deeper seated problems built up under his predecessors - a misfiring economy, an unfavourable agenda, and poor performance ratings across a wide range of issues.” Such progress has not been forthcoming.
The final of my trio of greatest hits came in June when I tried, not for the first time, to skewer one of the most persistent and disruptive myths in current politics - that of Boris Johnson’s popularity: “Johnson isn't popular and never was. His Premiership collapsed in a morass of scandal and chaos. His own misdeeds were many and serious, and voters wanted him out. Voters were enraged by dishonesty, incompetence and rule breaking. They are angry still. Johnson’s downfall is what voters wanted. While some Conservative MPs may still yearn for the king over the water, the British public made up their minds long ago: Boris Johnson is not the Messiah. He is a very naughty boy.”
What’s coming next
Things have been quiet here over the autumn as I’ve been busy with several day job projects. I’m hoping to write about two of these here before logging off for Christmas. In October I had the honour to give the Sir Roger Jowell memorial lecture at City University, where I asked: “Are attitudes to immigration changing and does this matter?” You can watch the lecture here:
Then last week I published a new report, co-authored with Hannah Bunting, Ralph Scott and Maria Sobolewska, with the Social Market Foundation looking at the education divide in British politics. The mobilisation of this divide is one of the most important drivers of political change in the last decade, and it will continue to reshape electoral competition in years to come. You can read the report here:
Degrees of Separation: The Education Divide in British Politics
After that, I hope to get into a more regular rhythm of posting here at the Swingometer. With an election on the way, there will be plenty to write about, and I have accumulated quite a few half-baked ideas in my “drafts” folder already. I would also love to hear more from you, my readers. So please do get in touch via the comments, or via Twitter or Bluesky (I’m @robfordmancs on Twitter; @robfordmancs.bsky.social on Bluesky) if there’s a topic or question you’d like me to write about. I’ve had a great time writing for you all in this first year. Stay tuned for much more of the same in the Swingometer’s first election year.
One question I ponder occasionally is whether a “far right”/populist/Reform UK/Farage-ist party could obtain the level of support needed to form a majority govt, thinking ahead to a 2028/29 election. This might be in the form of a Tory party which has completely abandoned its one nation faction OR a Reform UK which replaces a moribund Tory party as the main party on the right. Is my working assumption that elections are won from the centre undermined by increasing voter volatility and the prospect of a Labour government with few options due to a dire economic inheritance?
Uk voters reflects the union. Scots gave their own parties, NI is unique and Wales is essentially lab or PC. Next to no hope in those three for tories. Have the tories lost the north red wall seats? Brexit defined the last election in England. Cost of living will define the next. What have the tories done to help the Common People? Next to nothing. Not sure lab could do much more, but i think they might care more.