One question I ponder occasionally is whether a “far right”/populist/Reform UK/Farage-ist party could obtain the level of support needed to form a majority govt, thinking ahead to a 2028/29 election. This might be in the form of a Tory party which has completely abandoned its one nation faction OR a Reform UK which replaces a moribund Tory party as the main party on the right. Is my working assumption that elections are won from the centre undermined by increasing voter volatility and the prospect of a Labour government with few options due to a dire economic inheritance?
This is a horrible thought. My sense is that the Tories are likely to go bonkers following their electoral defeat, which might make it more difficult for a radical-right challenger. Suella Braverman is clearly on manoeuvres, idk whether at this point she would be favourite for a 2025 Tory leadership election but she must be close. Minor parties generally do well when they are offering something unique that none of the major parties is, but I'm not sure that really is the case for Reform - the Tories are drifting into that space anyway, and moreover they're proving exactly why the Reform agenda doesn't work in practice.
Uk voters reflects the union. Scots gave their own parties, NI is unique and Wales is essentially lab or PC. Next to no hope in those three for tories. Have the tories lost the north red wall seats? Brexit defined the last election in England. Cost of living will define the next. What have the tories done to help the Common People? Next to nothing. Not sure lab could do much more, but i think they might care more.
One question I ponder occasionally is whether a “far right”/populist/Reform UK/Farage-ist party could obtain the level of support needed to form a majority govt, thinking ahead to a 2028/29 election. This might be in the form of a Tory party which has completely abandoned its one nation faction OR a Reform UK which replaces a moribund Tory party as the main party on the right. Is my working assumption that elections are won from the centre undermined by increasing voter volatility and the prospect of a Labour government with few options due to a dire economic inheritance?
This is a horrible thought. My sense is that the Tories are likely to go bonkers following their electoral defeat, which might make it more difficult for a radical-right challenger. Suella Braverman is clearly on manoeuvres, idk whether at this point she would be favourite for a 2025 Tory leadership election but she must be close. Minor parties generally do well when they are offering something unique that none of the major parties is, but I'm not sure that really is the case for Reform - the Tories are drifting into that space anyway, and moreover they're proving exactly why the Reform agenda doesn't work in practice.
Uk voters reflects the union. Scots gave their own parties, NI is unique and Wales is essentially lab or PC. Next to no hope in those three for tories. Have the tories lost the north red wall seats? Brexit defined the last election in England. Cost of living will define the next. What have the tories done to help the Common People? Next to nothing. Not sure lab could do much more, but i think they might care more.