Only tangentially relevant, but: the Eastleigh by-election was one of those interesting turning points of political history. As I recall, Nick Clegg later said that if the Lib Dems had lost the seat, he would have resigned as leader. Similarly, Keir Starmer considered his position after Labour actually did lose the 2021 Hartlepool by-election. In both cases, one wonders what would have happened next if they had gone…
I'm not sure I'd call Caerphilly a "narrow win". Plaid got 47% of the vote, versus 36% for Reform and ended up with a 3,800 majority.
As a LibDem who was involved in the Eastleigh byelection ("We like Mike!"), we were concerned that UKIP might win. From my door knocking there I'd say that Chris Huhne's very good reputation as a hard working constituency MP also helped.
Whole article shows the bankruptcy of FPTP in a 3way plus vote. Ludicrous that voters need to 2nd guess the intentions of other voters to avoid their least preferable outcome. We need STV like the Republic of Ireland.
And what's wrong with "Man United bands" may I ask...? 😊
Serious question Rob, on something I think I've seen you say before: Why are Muslim voters "hard to poll"? (Sorry if I'm being dim and missing something obvious...)
I'm not Rob, but I am a survey researcher, so briefly:
1) Muslim voters are less online, so they are harder to access for online panels (which is all modern British polling);
2) Muslim voters have lower English proficiency, and for cost purposes, nearly all surveys are done solely in English for now (though ongoing demographic shifts will presumably mean that this will need to change soon);
3) Muslim voters have lower engagement with mainstream civic institutions, including polling companies, so they don't tend to sign up to the panels in the first place;
4) Muslim voters have low/erratic election turnout (partly related to that lower engagement with mainstream civic institutions), so it is hard to assess how likely they are to vote for a turnout model;
5) Muslim voters are more likely to determine their vote via trusted local community leaders, so they may not know who they will vote for until on the day, when the community leader takes them to the polling station and directs their vote.
I'm sure other pollsters will agree or disagree with some of these points, but I think the gist is pretty straightforward.
Thanks. All slightly depressing - not to say playing into unhelpful and hostile nativist stereotypes about Muslim people and communities - but I guess it is what it is.
As someone in this constituency, this whole campaign has made me utterly despair for the state of British politics. Endless lying from every party, endless negative campaigning, sectarian flame stoking, just utterly miserable experience all around.
I want Labour to win because I hate populism in general and think both Reform and the Greens have absolutely no credibility policy wise and I do not want to see us move in either of those directions or see their influence grow, but Labour have really done themselves dirty here too.
The result proves Neils Bohr's adage, "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." In the end it wasn't close at all. Goodwin was a poor choice by Farage suggesting that he may be an ace at self-publicity, but he isn't that astute politically outside the saloon bar. Labour were even more inept. Nevertheless, to win by a majority of 4400 is impressive. I think the Greens are entitled to conclude that given enough resources, they could win in most places. North Herefordshire, Brighton, Gorton & Denton - three very different constintuencies. But, the problem is that unlike some of their opponents, they are not funded by billionaires or deep-pocketed dodgy financiers, or various well-heeled vested interests like developers, landowners, big tech or offshore bankers. They can't throw the sort of resources they used in G&D - the enthusiastic volunteers keen for change - at large numbers of seats. But they can target enough to have an impact on the result. And the idea that in the more working class areas tactically Labour are a safe bet has been blown out of the water. The Greens are the left wing challengers, and Labour are seen as a centre-right losers.
This by election is very similar to a much less recent one; the 1903 Barnard Castle by-election. A new (in our case renewed) left wing party (Labour) against the current left of centre, but still very centrist one (Liberal). The right-wing party (Tory) stands with a great chance of coming up the middle to win against the splitting of the left.
Labour one that by-election, 47 votes ahead of the Tories, with the liberal party falling to a distant third. It gave labour their 5th seat in parliament, significant as Gorton and Denton would give the Greens their 5th too.
This was part of the run-up to Labour eventually supplanting the Liberal Party.
Only tangentially relevant, but: the Eastleigh by-election was one of those interesting turning points of political history. As I recall, Nick Clegg later said that if the Lib Dems had lost the seat, he would have resigned as leader. Similarly, Keir Starmer considered his position after Labour actually did lose the 2021 Hartlepool by-election. In both cases, one wonders what would have happened next if they had gone…
I'm not sure I'd call Caerphilly a "narrow win". Plaid got 47% of the vote, versus 36% for Reform and ended up with a 3,800 majority.
As a LibDem who was involved in the Eastleigh byelection ("We like Mike!"), we were concerned that UKIP might win. From my door knocking there I'd say that Chris Huhne's very good reputation as a hard working constituency MP also helped.
Whole article shows the bankruptcy of FPTP in a 3way plus vote. Ludicrous that voters need to 2nd guess the intentions of other voters to avoid their least preferable outcome. We need STV like the Republic of Ireland.
And what's wrong with "Man United bands" may I ask...? 😊
Serious question Rob, on something I think I've seen you say before: Why are Muslim voters "hard to poll"? (Sorry if I'm being dim and missing something obvious...)
I'm not Rob, but I am a survey researcher, so briefly:
1) Muslim voters are less online, so they are harder to access for online panels (which is all modern British polling);
2) Muslim voters have lower English proficiency, and for cost purposes, nearly all surveys are done solely in English for now (though ongoing demographic shifts will presumably mean that this will need to change soon);
3) Muslim voters have lower engagement with mainstream civic institutions, including polling companies, so they don't tend to sign up to the panels in the first place;
4) Muslim voters have low/erratic election turnout (partly related to that lower engagement with mainstream civic institutions), so it is hard to assess how likely they are to vote for a turnout model;
5) Muslim voters are more likely to determine their vote via trusted local community leaders, so they may not know who they will vote for until on the day, when the community leader takes them to the polling station and directs their vote.
I'm sure other pollsters will agree or disagree with some of these points, but I think the gist is pretty straightforward.
Thanks. All slightly depressing - not to say playing into unhelpful and hostile nativist stereotypes about Muslim people and communities - but I guess it is what it is.
As someone in this constituency, this whole campaign has made me utterly despair for the state of British politics. Endless lying from every party, endless negative campaigning, sectarian flame stoking, just utterly miserable experience all around.
I want Labour to win because I hate populism in general and think both Reform and the Greens have absolutely no credibility policy wise and I do not want to see us move in either of those directions or see their influence grow, but Labour have really done themselves dirty here too.
Sounds like "definitely maybe" is what the polls are suggesting for the three parties involved.
My guess is due to unpopular Govt protest and anti Reform left of centre coalition, the Greens might edge it .
Rock N'Roll Star
The result proves Neils Bohr's adage, "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." In the end it wasn't close at all. Goodwin was a poor choice by Farage suggesting that he may be an ace at self-publicity, but he isn't that astute politically outside the saloon bar. Labour were even more inept. Nevertheless, to win by a majority of 4400 is impressive. I think the Greens are entitled to conclude that given enough resources, they could win in most places. North Herefordshire, Brighton, Gorton & Denton - three very different constintuencies. But, the problem is that unlike some of their opponents, they are not funded by billionaires or deep-pocketed dodgy financiers, or various well-heeled vested interests like developers, landowners, big tech or offshore bankers. They can't throw the sort of resources they used in G&D - the enthusiastic volunteers keen for change - at large numbers of seats. But they can target enough to have an impact on the result. And the idea that in the more working class areas tactically Labour are a safe bet has been blown out of the water. The Greens are the left wing challengers, and Labour are seen as a centre-right losers.
Excellent piece
This by election is very similar to a much less recent one; the 1903 Barnard Castle by-election. A new (in our case renewed) left wing party (Labour) against the current left of centre, but still very centrist one (Liberal). The right-wing party (Tory) stands with a great chance of coming up the middle to win against the splitting of the left.
Labour one that by-election, 47 votes ahead of the Tories, with the liberal party falling to a distant third. It gave labour their 5th seat in parliament, significant as Gorton and Denton would give the Greens their 5th too.
This was part of the run-up to Labour eventually supplanting the Liberal Party.
We could be in for a momentous night.
Defo. Slide Away. Have to state I love the Stone Roses too. And I’m a Stokie - though now living in Miami.
Based on this Labour look good value at 5/1.
Thank you for your coverage, and I'm glad you made the right choice of Oasis song in the end!