I feel the outcome may well lie in how the fringe parties poll. The general election had 6 candidates, the workers not standing, so 5 now, but it’s 11 including those without any hope. I’m personally not over concerned, as long as Reform and the abhorrent Goodwin lose preferably very badly, I’ll be pleased. This constituency doesn’t need the divisive rhetoric of Farage and Reform, this country needs to be together as one, not divided into the us and them Reform wants, we don’t need to mirror America.
I work nearby and travel through it every day and Gorton is a really interesting and quickly diversifying area in lots of ways. My impression, totally anecdotal (!) but resonating with some of the demographic stats, is that Gorton and parts of East Manchester into Tameside (Droylesden) is that there is an increasingly large African diaspora in this area. I would guess that some of this is formal (showing up in the stats) and some informal. I have no idea which way the Manchester African community would vote, I'd assume some is socially conservative, some not. Would be interested in knowing if this intuition is correct on which way these communities might lean
I was fairly confident or at least hopeful from my point of view that labour would win this seat based upon a more effective locally rooted ground game. I’ve had some experience of these matters and local knowledge and available data count for a lot.
However, presumably Rob, this was written before the political explosion of the Mandelson crisis. I am not sure how much a crisis of this sort impacts a local campaign but it must play some part. I’m reminded of Jeremy Thorpe being accused of conspiracy to murder being asked by Robin Day on the BBC election night program ‘Mr Thorpe do you think the relatively poor showing in this election was due to the conspiracy to murder charge’? And Jeremy Thorpe replied even even under the pressure with his customary panache, ‘Well Robin - I don’t think it could have helped’!
I am desperate for the very, in the view of many , unpleasant Reform party and candidate to be defeated but I don’t think the Mandelson scandal has helped!
Thank you for your interesting postings on this campaign.
I understand the Green polling chart and how it is constructed. This is probably based on the latest door knock data. It is probably not helpful for those who are trying to analyse this data - the psephologists - but I assume that’s what they are highlighting. Interesting constituency and I ok forward to reading more of this excellent blog.
I feel the outcome may well lie in how the fringe parties poll. The general election had 6 candidates, the workers not standing, so 5 now, but it’s 11 including those without any hope. I’m personally not over concerned, as long as Reform and the abhorrent Goodwin lose preferably very badly, I’ll be pleased. This constituency doesn’t need the divisive rhetoric of Farage and Reform, this country needs to be together as one, not divided into the us and them Reform wants, we don’t need to mirror America.
I work nearby and travel through it every day and Gorton is a really interesting and quickly diversifying area in lots of ways. My impression, totally anecdotal (!) but resonating with some of the demographic stats, is that Gorton and parts of East Manchester into Tameside (Droylesden) is that there is an increasingly large African diaspora in this area. I would guess that some of this is formal (showing up in the stats) and some informal. I have no idea which way the Manchester African community would vote, I'd assume some is socially conservative, some not. Would be interested in knowing if this intuition is correct on which way these communities might lean
Predictions https://polymarket.com/event/gorton-and-denton-by-election-winner scroll down for comments
I was fairly confident or at least hopeful from my point of view that labour would win this seat based upon a more effective locally rooted ground game. I’ve had some experience of these matters and local knowledge and available data count for a lot.
However, presumably Rob, this was written before the political explosion of the Mandelson crisis. I am not sure how much a crisis of this sort impacts a local campaign but it must play some part. I’m reminded of Jeremy Thorpe being accused of conspiracy to murder being asked by Robin Day on the BBC election night program ‘Mr Thorpe do you think the relatively poor showing in this election was due to the conspiracy to murder charge’? And Jeremy Thorpe replied even even under the pressure with his customary panache, ‘Well Robin - I don’t think it could have helped’!
I am desperate for the very, in the view of many , unpleasant Reform party and candidate to be defeated but I don’t think the Mandelson scandal has helped!
Thank you for your interesting postings on this campaign.
I understand the Green polling chart and how it is constructed. This is probably based on the latest door knock data. It is probably not helpful for those who are trying to analyse this data - the psephologists - but I assume that’s what they are highlighting. Interesting constituency and I ok forward to reading more of this excellent blog.
Keep up the good work Rob!. I used your first "report" on Gorton in yesterday's THE LEFT LANE ( below photo of Gorton) : https://theleftlane2024.substack.com/p/this-former-your-party-yp-activist