Local elections: The Big Preview, part 2

Blackpool, Mayors and Police Commissioners

While most of the seats won and lost this week will be in local council contests, we have a diverse set of other election contests taking place as well, including what may end up being the last Westminster by-election before the general election¹, the London Mayoral election and ten other Combined Authority Mayoral elections and the election of 37 Police and Crime Commissioners across England and Wales. This second post will give you a full run through the lay of the land in all of these contests.

The Blackpool South by-election

Bing AI imagines the Blackpool by-election as a Strictly Come Dancing Blackpool special.

The Blackpool South by-election is the latest in a string of contests this Parliament triggered by scandal. The former MP Scott Benton was caught in a sting operation, secretly recorded by undercover Times journalists promising to lobby ministers, table Parliamentary questions and leak a confidential policy paper. He was suspended from the House for 35 days, triggering an automatic recall petition. Mr Benton resigned before his voters could recall him.

Blackpool South election results 1945-2019

Source: Wikipedia

Blackpool South gets lumped in with other “red wall” seats Labour lost in 2019 because it is a struggling Northern town, but Blackpool is politically quite different from the red wall industrial seats which flipped to the Conservatives in 2019 after returning Labour MPs for generations. A once prosperous seaside resort, Blackpool was a safe Conservative seat before the New Labour years - the seat and its predecessors had elected Conservative MPs in every election but one since 1885 before flipping to Labour in the first Blair landslide of 1997. Labour managed to hold on here when they fell back in 2010, suggesting economic decline has shifted the seat from very blue leaning to slightly red leaning, but this is a traditional swing seat, with only small majorities for either party in every election since 2010.

Labour are now very far ahead in the polls, so they should expect to win such a seat with ease in the general election, and by an even bigger margin in a by-election where swings against the government are usually larger. If we apply the average swing Labour has achieved in “top two” by-elections across this Parliament, Labour will win comfortably with 49% to the Conservatives’ 38%. If instead we apply the larger average swing Labour have achieved in by-elections since December 2021, the opposition will win 52%-35%.

The key targets for ReformUK are 13%, the highest share they have achieved so far in a by-election (in Wellingborough earlier this year) and 17% (the share UKIP achieved in Blackpool South in 2015). If Reform cannot hit either of these targets, serious questions have to be asked about its ability to mobilise voters, while if Reform surpass UKIP then a lot of Conservative MPs will be even more worried than they already are about a Reform revolt on the right in their seats.

The London mayoralty

Results from the last two London mayoralty elections (first round only):

Sadiq Khan and his team have been briefing a tight re-election contest, although the polls all show a comfortable win for Khan. I discussed their concerns in an earlier Swingometer post - it is hard to believe the electoral system or voter ID will substantially impact on Khan’s prospects, though they add uncertainty, while the notion that third terms are uniquely hard relies on cherry picking results from here and abroad, while ignoring many examples of candidates (including some of Khan’s fellow Labour mayors) sailing untroubled to third victories.

Any troubles Labour have in this contest reflect weaknesses in their candidate rather than the broader electoral context - Khan’s approvals are weak, and many Londoners unimpressed with his record on many issues. Khan can therefore count himself lucky that he is up against a weak opponent in a very pro-Labour year. While he underperformed his polling in 2021, his lead in April polling is roughly the same this year (16.5 points) as it was last time (17 points). A victory for Susan Hall and the Conservatives requires a massive polling miss, and result in some soul searching for the London polling industry as well as London Labour.

London Mayoral polling in 2024 so far

Londoners will also elect representatives for all 25 London Assembly seats. Fourteen AMs are elected in really massive first past the post constituencies - the winning candidates can secure 100,000 votes or more - while the remaining 11 seats are elected from London wide list votes using the D’Hondt method of proportional allocation. This mixed member PR system has produced very stable results over the years - Labour has won between 9 and 12 seats and the Conservatives have won between 9 and 11 seats in every contest so far. Neither party has ever achieved a majority. That could change this year. Polls suggest a substantial 7.5 point swing from Conservatives to Labour in both the constituency and list voting for the Assembly, driven mostly by a collapse in Conservative support.

London Assembly voting in 201 and voting intentions in latest YouGov poll

Source: YouGov London poll 24th-30th April

A swing on this scale could see several first past the post Assembly seats change hands - West Central requires a 0.8 point swing; Havering and Redbridge 4.6 points; and Croydon and Sutton 5.1 points. All three have only ever returned Conservative AMs since the Assembly was created in 2000. Labour can also theoretically win the South West constituency on a 2.8 point swing but here there is an added complication - Labour start third to the Liberal Democrats, in a patch of London which regularly elected Lib Dem councillors and MPs (it includes Richmond and Kingston, where Lib Dem leader Ed Davey has his seat). The Lib Dems will hope that a squeeze on the Labour vote in a part of London where tactical support for the Lib Dems is a familiar idea will deliver them this seat - they need a 1.9 point swing to take it for the first time.

If all of these seats fall the Conservatives will be left with just one first past the post seat in London - the outer South East London seat of Bexley and Bromley where their local majority is unassailable. Such losses will be offset by gains on the list though. A proportional electoral system which Conservatives oppose in most other contests may be the only thing keeping them relevant in the London Assembly after next week. If Labour gain 12 FPP seats, then a first ever London Assembly majority could theoretically be within reach, though it would require a very strong performance indeed on list votes for Labour to secure it.

London is renowned for delayed vote counts. They start counting later than others, and they choose to declare the constituency results individually first. The estimate is for the London Assembly votes to be declared from 1.30pm on Saturday May 4^th – it will be a minor miracle if this estimate proves accurate for all Assembly constituencies.  The wait for results on Saturday has been a long one in past elections. It could be well into the evening before we know the outcome if the result is at all close.

The West Midlands mayoralty

The West Midlands is undoubtedly Labour’s top target. Andy Street is the Conservative politician with the largest direct electoral mandate in the country, and enjoys relatively strong approval ratings, running well ahead of his floundering party and PM. Street would be a major scalp for the opposition in a region thick with marginal battlegrounds which will soon by targeted in the general election. We have (at last!) had some polling on the West Midlands², which suggests a tight contest once again. Here are the results from the last two elections (first round only)³ and the current polling averages (first round only):

West Midlands Mayoral results (2017-21) and current polling (4 poll average)

Polls from Savanta (11-17 April); More in Common (19-24 April); Redfield and Wilton (22-24 April) and YouGov (12-29 April)

Labour needs a swing of just 4.5% to win, and there has been a swing of much more than that since 2021 in the national polls. But the polls show a very, very tight - Labour leads by just 1.5 points on average, and the last four polls have given two leads each to Labour and the Tories. Andy Street is a tough incumbent to beat. He has built a reputation for competence and moderation and successfully distanced himself from his currently toxic party (for example by publicly criticising the Prime Minister).

Labour may have other problems too. The West Midlands has large Muslim communities, and Muslim voters may either sit the contest out or vote for the independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob as a protest against Labour’s position on the ongoing crisis in Gaza. Labour may also struggle to turn out voters in Birmingham, the largest local authority in the Mayoral combined authority, and traditionally Labour leaning, because it has no concurrent local council elections. Birmingham council, which is Labour run, also declared bankruptcy earlier this year, slashing services and pushing up council tax by 10%. Street may benefit directly from voter anger and indirectly from the contrast between his administration and the floundering Labour administration running the region’s largest council.

The West Midlands mayoral result is scheduled for Saturday 4^th May, 3pm, a day and a half after polls close. We may get some indications of the swing from results in the councils of Walsall, Solihull, Sandwell, Dudley, and Wolverhampton, all of which report on Friday afternoon. The table below shows how the local authorities in the West Midlands voted in the first round of the 2017 and 2021 mayoralty and in the local elections in 2021. However, any hints from these results will need to be taken with a hefty pinch of salt, as many voters in the region may split their tickets, as they have in the past (for example, when Labour lost the Mayoralty in 2021 they won the Police and Crime Commissioner election, which covers exactly the same area).

West Midlands Mayoral results by local authority, 2017 and 2021, and 2021 local elections gains and losses

The Tees Valley mayoralty

Labour’s number two mayoral target, and one of the prized assets of the night and a key marker of Labour progress in the ‘Red Wall’. Here are the results from the last two Tees Valley mayoralty elections:

Tees Valley Mayoral elections, 2017 and 2021

Ben Houchen’s very narrow 2017 victory in this traditionally very Labour region was a political sensation. Houchen followed this up with a massive win in 2021, taking nearly three quarters of the vote in a two horse race. Minor party choices this time help Houchen and hurt Labour - the Lib Dems are standing while ReformUK are not. Houchen, even more than Andy Street, has built a strong personal brand, but faces a huge challenge overcoming voter hostility to his party. There are two polls of the race and both show it is close - Redfield and Wilton reported a 47-47 tie while YouGov give Houchen a seven point lead.

The result is scheduled for Friday 3^rd May 12.30pm. However, the local election results from Hartlepool are amongst the first to be declared (1.30am Friday 3^rd May), and will provide indicator of the Conservative to Labour swing in the region - though these come with the strong caveat that many voters may split their ballots, backing Labour for the council and Houchen for Mayor.

East Midlands Mayoralty

A new position so a new election, covering the council areas of Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire. This contest features Ben Bradley, whose victory in Mansfield in 2017 was a harbinger of the broader swing to the Conservatives in Leave voting ‘Red Wall’ seats (Mansfield has seen the largest cumulative Lab to Con swing anywhere since 1997). A Labour win in this contest will have implications for the general election, as it takes in a number of electorally volatile battleground seats which have swung strongly against Labour since 2015 including Ashfield, Bolsover, Bassetlaw, Derby North, Gedling, Mansfield and North East Derbyshire. We will also get a chance to assess Reform UK in Ashfield, the seat represented by their only MP, Conservative defector Lee Anderson. There has been one poll published of the race which shows Labour comfortably ahead (Labour 41% Conservatives 28%)

Greater Manchester Mayoralty

Andy Burnham has comfortably won both previous Greater Manchester mayoralty elections (67.3% in 2021 and 63.4% in 2017). The main indicator to watch here is results broken down by local authority – Labour will be hoping for strong showings from Burnham in boroughs such as Bury, Bolton, Tameside and Trafford where important marginal target seats are located.  The only poll of the race shows Burnham winning nearly two thirds of the vote, and the Conservatives falling into third place on 9%, behind Reform on 12%. So much for difficult third elections.

Liverpool City Region Mayoralty

Steve Rotheram has comfortably won both previous Liverpool mayoral elections (59.3% and 58.2%) and is widely expected to win again. Results from Sefton provide the only Westminster interest, as the last remaining Conservative MP in Merseyside represents the marginal seat of Southport in this local authority – Labour will be targeting it in the general election.

North East Combined Authority mayoralty

A new position covering seven member councils: Durham, Northumberland, Gateshead, Newcastle, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Sunderland). Jamie Driscoll (former mayor of North of Tyne Combined Authority) was banned from selection by Labour due to a stage appearance with Ken Loach, who is banned from Labour. He is standing here as an Independent, and the only poll of the race suggests he may pose a threat to Labour - MoreInCommon found Labour candidate Kim McGuinness leading Driscoll by just two points - 35% to 33%. A win for Driscoll would be a major upset in a very Labour leaning region.

Salford City mayoralty

Labour have comfortably won this election in each year it has been contested and are expected to do so again. It reports very late indeed.

South Yorkshire mayoralty

Contested as the ‘Sheffield City Region’ won comfortably by Labour in 2018 (Dan Jarvis) and in 2022 (Oliver Coppard) . Now renamed. Covers Sheffield, Barnsley, Doncaster and Rotherham – the final three have all been strong for UKIP in the past, but there is no ReformUK candidate in the Mayoral contest – possibly a missed opportunity for them. There is no polling of the race but it should be a comfortable win for Labour incumbent Coppard.

West Yorkshire mayoralty

First contested in 2021, when Tracy Brabin (Lab) won the first round with 43.1% over Matt Robinson (Con; 29.1%), which subsequently became 59.8% - 40.2% in the final round. Takes in Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees, Leeds and Wakefield. Plenty of marginal seats in this city-region, and concurrent local elections in all the constituent local authorities. There is no ReformUK candidate in an area of former UKIP strength, but the Yorkshire Party are standing – their performance could given an indication of local populist discontent. There is no polling of the race but it should be an easy win for Labour incumbent Brabin.

York and North Yorkshire mayoralty

New combined authority holding its first election in 2024. Could be interesting to watch given the huge political divergence in its two constituent parts – North Yorkshire (home to Rishi Sunak’s Richmond constituency) is very blue indeed, while Labour and the Liberal Democrats dominate the City of York council, where the Tories have just 3 of 47 seats. There are no prior elections to go on, but the general (and lazy) pundit expectation seems to be that this will be a Con win, meaning a Labour win would be treated as a shock upset, occurring in Sunak’s backyard. The only poll of the race, from the Labour aligned think tank Labour Together, has Labour winning comfortably - and Labour has won a by-election in North Yorkshire recently on a massive swing. Results should be reported late on Friday afternoon. Worth watching.

Police and Crime Commissioner elections

Elections are also taking place for Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) in 37 police areas across England & Wales.⁴ These are lower-order elections with lower turnout, especially in the areas with no other elections on the day. However, precisely for this reason they provide a good sense of the national parties’ standings with the kind of high engagement voters who participate in these contests, and in particular a judgement on how the parties are view on crime and policing, traditionally a strength for the Conservatives and a weakness for Labour.

Labour will hope and expect to win a few of these from the Conservatives, given these PCCs were all last elected in 2021 at the peak of the vaccine bounce. A further complication is that, as with Mayoral contests, these elections are switching electoral system from first supplemental vote to first past the post.⁵ This makes comparisons trickier, as many PCCs have large first round votes for smaller parties - indeed in one case (North Wales) Labour came from behind to win via transferred votes. The best we can do is to calculate swings required based on first preference votes last time. Based on this metric, Labour’s best PCC targets are:

North Wales (1.3 point swing to hold)

Lancashire (1.6 point swing)

Nottinghamshire (2.2 point swing)

Humberside (3.1 point swing)

Bedfordshire (3.7 point swing)

Cheshire (3.7 point swing)

Cambridgeshire (5.3 point swing)

Avon and Somerset (5.5 point swing)

Derbyshire (6 point swing)

Thames Valley (7.4 point swing)

Leicestershire (8 point swing)

The Conservatives hold 30 of the 39 PCC positions being contested, with the remainder split between Labour (8) and Plaid Cymru (1). If Labour won all the above targets from the Conservatives and held on in North Wales, which they won on transferred preferences last time, they would be on 18 and the Conservatives on 20. Overtaking the Conservatives would require winning PCCs requiring more ambitious swings such as North Yorkshire (10.5 point swing), Hertfordshire (12.2 point swing) or Cleveland (12.7 point swing) – the first of these is in Rishi Sunak’s backyard, so a win there would have symbolic resonance, particularly if combined with a Labour win in the concurrent Mayoral contest.

The table below shows the 2021 first preference votes in each PCC

Police and Crime Commissioner 2021 first preference votes

That completes our run through all the non-council elections taking place this Thursday. Tune in later today for the final part of the Big Preview: a run through all 107 of the English local councils holding elections on Thursday. Which could be gained and lost? Where are the big contests the parties will be watching? All will be revealed!

1. By elections don’t tend to get held in the final months before a general election contest, with the seat instead being kept vacant until the whole country votes. By-elections have taken place very late in both of the last election cycles, but both were snap elections called at short notice in the middle of a Parliamentary term. The last by-election of the 2010-15 Parliament was Mark Reckless’s re-election as a UKIP MP in Rochester and Strood in November 2014, nearly six months before the general election. The last by-election of the 2005-10 Parliament was the contest to replace the Speaker Michael Martin in November 2009, again roughly six months before the general election. The next Westminster contest is now at most 9 months away, and by-elections take between 21 and 27 working days from when the writ is moved to trigger one, so time is fast running out.

2. Five polls! All published after I moaned on this substack about there being no polling. I have no idea whether my moaning played any role in this, but I will nonetheless be claiming it as “impact” in the next Research Excellence Framework submission.

3. The election will be first-past-the-post this time. Previously the West Midlands, like London and other Mayoral races, used the “Supplementary Vote” system where voters could cast a first vote for any candidate, and then second vote for the candidate they preferred out of those they expected to come in the top two. This somewhat confusing system has been ditched for all Mayoral races, so everyone gets just a single vote this time. I compare vote intention now with first preference votes cast in the previous two contests.

4. The South Yorkshire PCC is being abolished this year, with its functions handed over to the metro Mayor.

5. I had missed this change in the first version of this post and calculated swings based on second round votes last time - my thanks to Steve Fisher for pointing out this issue. All figures are now corrected to calculate required swings from first preference votes last time.