The general election in numbers
Some crunchy stats to kickstart your campaign
47 - the number of seats the Conservatives notionally won in 2019 and can afford to lose before they lose their overall majority.1 Lose more than this and they are very likely to be out of government, as they have no friends among the minor parties
11 - the number of seats the Conservatives have already lost in by-elections during this Parliament, and would need to win back just to get back to their 2019 starting point (they also won one seat from Labour in the Hartlepool by-election, which feels a long time ago)
126 - the number of seats Labour needs to gain to secure an overall majority in the House of Commons
146 - the number of seats Labour gained in its 1997 landslide victory. The result was described by Professor Anthony King on the BBC election broadcast as like "an asteroid hitting the planet and destroying practically all life on Earth". Labour secured an overall majority of 179 seats. The same seat gain this time would give Labour an overall majority of 42.
246 - The most seats ever lost by a party in one general election, when Henry Campbell-Bannerman’s Liberals annihilated Arthur Balfour’s2 Conservatives
29.2% - Lowest share of the vote ever recorded for the Conservatives, in 1832, when the Whigs under Earl Grey trounced the Conservatives led by the Duke of Wellington in an election where less than a million votes were cast.
21% - Conservative GB vote share in the Economist poll average on the 19th May 2024
44.4% - Labour GB vote share achieved by Tony Blair in his first 1997 landslide
44% - Labour GB vote share in the Economist poll average on the 19th May 2024
10.3 points - Conservative to Labour swing achieved by Tony Blair in 1997
16.7 points - Conservative to Labour swing from 2019 to polling average on 23rd May. If this swing occurs on polling day, Arthur Balfour’s record could be under threat.
23.9 points - Labour to SNP swing achieved by Nicola Sturgeon in 2015. The SNP gained 50 seats from other parties, Labour lost 40 seats.
17.5 points - SNP to Labour swing from 2019 to polling average on 23rd May. If this swing occurs on polling day, this could see up to 40 Labour seat gains.
7 - the number of general elections resulting in a change of governing party since 1945 - 1951, 1964, 1970, 1974, 1979, 1997, 2010
2 - The number of general elections resulting in a change of governing party since I was born in 1980.
1 - the number of general elections where a government with a working majority was replaced by an opposition with working majority.3 That election was also fought in the summer, during the middle of a football tournament where England were favourites, after the Prime Minister (Harold Wilson) surprised everyone expecting an autumn election by going early. The World Cup did not go well for England, and the election did not go well for Wilson.
0 - the number of elections won by a party trailing by more than 10 points in the polls when the general election is called. Sunak’s Conservatives start this campaign trailing by over 20 points.
This election is fought on new boundaries, and boundary changes have slightly improved the Conservative’s standings, boosting this number from 40 to 47.
Balfour succeeded his uncle Robert, Marquess of Salisbury in Downing Street and is the source of the phrase “Bob’s your uncle”, reflecting what most voters regarded as the obvious explanation for his rapid rise up the greasy pole of politics. He did not prove to be a great advert for nepotism.
By “working majority” I mean a majority sufficient to enable the government to withstand small rebellions and govern effectively. In 1951, Churchill secured a majority of 17, meaning in theory 9 rebel votes would be enough to defeat the government. In 1964, Harold Wilson won a majority of 4, meaning just three rebel votes could in principle defeat the government. In 1974, the first election (in February) resulted in a Hung Parliament and the second election (in October) resulted in a 3 seat majority for Labour. In 1979, Labour had lost their majority due to by-election defeats by the time the general election was called. In 1997, the same was true of John Major’s Conservatives. In 2010, the result was a Hung Parliament and the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Coalition.