This quality and neutrality of analysis used to be normal, didn’t it….? Or did my standards gradually change?
It’s become such a strange feeling to *not* dedicate part of the brain to discovering what the author wants me to think, what key facts have been omitted, why my preferred party is not mentioned etc. Thank you
Brilliant breakdown. The point about Reform consolidating the legacy independent/Community Action vote is crucial, but the ultimate wildcard here could end up being fragmentation on the left.
In a seat where the baseline Survation model gives Burnham a razor-thin lead over Reform, voters voting on grassroots conviction matters immensely. If even 3% of the left-wing vote goes Green, Burnham’s cushion will completely vanish and could essentially hand the seat to Reform.
‘Makerfield is part of Wigan Borough Council but it is not really Wigan either - residents of Makerfield’s identify primarily with their towns, and regard Wigan itself as a local rival.’
This sounds like a description of Leigh (or perhaps Atherton or Tyldesley.)
The wards within Makerfield (aside from one small section) are very much within the town of Wigan as well as the borough of Wigan (yes I realise this is incredibly confusing!)
Hi Sean, sorry to say, I'm from Ashton (not one of the other bits of the constituency, I wouldn't speak for them), and much of my family is still there and I'd agree with Rob.
It might be because my dad's side of the family *are* from Merseyside (not Liverpool), and live on the Haydock-adjacent side of town (so much so that when I saw the thumbnail of Andy Burnham my first thought was 'that's Park View', the road that leads out to the two schools built on the site of the old Garswood Hall, where my nan was briefly in service as a young lass.
But certainly the view that Ashton is a *separate* town with its own identity that's often overlooked or ignored and isn't just a bit of Wigan, is, to my mind, a part of the story of why there's always been a strong independent presence in local politics.
An alternative explanation, which is not one I'd necessary take issue with, is that it's because the average Ashtonian is simply bloody awkward.
Its an excellent overview Rob but I dont think Wigan’s loyalty to Labour can be understood with reference to its proximity to Manchester/Greater Manchester or Liverpool/Merseyside. Its more analogous to the Welsh loyalty to Labour. Its ex-mining town (Joe Gormley was from Wigan) that has voted Labour for 100 years. Dense with Labour clubs and the like.
Thanks, Rob, that is a superb profile of the seat. It is a fascinating by-election.
In addition to the points you make, there is one big problem for Reform: their local election campaign just a few weeks ago heavily pushed the line 'Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer'. Everyone knows that the quickest way to get rid of Starmer now is to vote Labour in this election.
As I read the stories of Makerfield’s political history I found myself thinking a lot about the Irish Catholic aspect. Excuse my ignorance but is there any sense of Irish catholics voting differently in the present day? Like are they more/less likely to still vote labour than ‘average’ voter?
I think now fully assimilated .The last generation of Irish born in the area passed sway in the 60s n 70s.
The glue of the Church ,Irish clubs etc faded away in the 80s n 90s.
To see St George flags on the lamp posts on the streets where we walked behind pipe bands on St Patrick’s Day and in Corpus Christie processions is for me astonishing .
Your list of former Ince MPs omits its first working-class MP, Lancashire miners' leader Sam Woods, who was elected in 1892 as a Lib-Lab and lost his seat to the Tory in the following election, 1895.
One factor not mentioned here is that the Conservatives - remember them? - have actually put up a good candidate who is locally known and has experience.
Orrell and the areas around it have always had a decent Conservative presence, so although Michael Winstanley isn't going to win here (probably not even in Winstanley), nor is he going to get nil and what he *does* get might be very important.
Excellent account of the complex economic and social geography and the fascinating political history. I don't think the Greens will be a big factor here, the Lib Dems even less so and the Conservatives making little impact. My hunch is that Burnham will win but not that convincingly. I must say that as a Labour member I find it odd being asked to donate to a campaign so that a Labour prime minister can be removed.
"residents of Makerfield’s identify primarily with their towns, and regard Wigan itself as a local rival"
As someone who grew up in the constituency, has their entire family and lots of friends there, I've never met anyone in "Makerfield" - which isn't really a thing bar coming after "Ashton-In" - who doesn't consider themselves a Wiganer other than people who moved from elsewhere, primarily Liverpool.
Hi Sean, I agree on Makerfield and thought I had made this clear in the piece - as I say right at the start there isn't anywhere in the seat called "Makerfield". When I'm referring to the towns here I mean Ashton, Platt Bridge, and so on. If I've overstated the divide between the area and Wigan, I put my hands up - this seemed to me the best explanation for the area's long tradition of backing independents (and Community Action) in local elections. I will edit to tone this point down.
This quality and neutrality of analysis used to be normal, didn’t it….? Or did my standards gradually change?
It’s become such a strange feeling to *not* dedicate part of the brain to discovering what the author wants me to think, what key facts have been omitted, why my preferred party is not mentioned etc. Thank you
Brilliant breakdown. The point about Reform consolidating the legacy independent/Community Action vote is crucial, but the ultimate wildcard here could end up being fragmentation on the left.
In a seat where the baseline Survation model gives Burnham a razor-thin lead over Reform, voters voting on grassroots conviction matters immensely. If even 3% of the left-wing vote goes Green, Burnham’s cushion will completely vanish and could essentially hand the seat to Reform.
‘Makerfield is part of Wigan Borough Council but it is not really Wigan either - residents of Makerfield’s identify primarily with their towns, and regard Wigan itself as a local rival.’
This sounds like a description of Leigh (or perhaps Atherton or Tyldesley.)
The wards within Makerfield (aside from one small section) are very much within the town of Wigan as well as the borough of Wigan (yes I realise this is incredibly confusing!)
I hold my hands up on this point - and have edited to tone it down.
Hi Sean, sorry to say, I'm from Ashton (not one of the other bits of the constituency, I wouldn't speak for them), and much of my family is still there and I'd agree with Rob.
It might be because my dad's side of the family *are* from Merseyside (not Liverpool), and live on the Haydock-adjacent side of town (so much so that when I saw the thumbnail of Andy Burnham my first thought was 'that's Park View', the road that leads out to the two schools built on the site of the old Garswood Hall, where my nan was briefly in service as a young lass.
But certainly the view that Ashton is a *separate* town with its own identity that's often overlooked or ignored and isn't just a bit of Wigan, is, to my mind, a part of the story of why there's always been a strong independent presence in local politics.
An alternative explanation, which is not one I'd necessary take issue with, is that it's because the average Ashtonian is simply bloody awkward.
Its an excellent overview Rob but I dont think Wigan’s loyalty to Labour can be understood with reference to its proximity to Manchester/Greater Manchester or Liverpool/Merseyside. Its more analogous to the Welsh loyalty to Labour. Its ex-mining town (Joe Gormley was from Wigan) that has voted Labour for 100 years. Dense with Labour clubs and the like.
Thanks, Rob, that is a superb profile of the seat. It is a fascinating by-election.
In addition to the points you make, there is one big problem for Reform: their local election campaign just a few weeks ago heavily pushed the line 'Vote Reform to get rid of Starmer'. Everyone knows that the quickest way to get rid of Starmer now is to vote Labour in this election.
I think that’s a bit naive
The strong Irish Catholic component in SW Lancs was a major part of the politics and identity of the Labour Party through into
As I read the stories of Makerfield’s political history I found myself thinking a lot about the Irish Catholic aspect. Excuse my ignorance but is there any sense of Irish catholics voting differently in the present day? Like are they more/less likely to still vote labour than ‘average’ voter?
I think now fully assimilated .The last generation of Irish born in the area passed sway in the 60s n 70s.
The glue of the Church ,Irish clubs etc faded away in the 80s n 90s.
To see St George flags on the lamp posts on the streets where we walked behind pipe bands on St Patrick’s Day and in Corpus Christie processions is for me astonishing .
Your list of former Ince MPs omits its first working-class MP, Lancashire miners' leader Sam Woods, who was elected in 1892 as a Lib-Lab and lost his seat to the Tory in the following election, 1895.
One factor not mentioned here is that the Conservatives - remember them? - have actually put up a good candidate who is locally known and has experience.
Orrell and the areas around it have always had a decent Conservative presence, so although Michael Winstanley isn't going to win here (probably not even in Winstanley), nor is he going to get nil and what he *does* get might be very important.
Burnham's right-wing shifts (u-turns) over the past week will lead to Greens winning enough votes for Reform to win the seat
https://www.restorebritain.org.uk/makerfield
You don’t mention this. Might the Friends of Rupert fatally damage the chances of the Friends of Nigel?
Driver Andy
Was there today and was told Restore are putting quite a bit of effort in. Not sure how professional it is though, they canvassed my dad three times!
Excellent account of the complex economic and social geography and the fascinating political history. I don't think the Greens will be a big factor here, the Lib Dems even less so and the Conservatives making little impact. My hunch is that Burnham will win but not that convincingly. I must say that as a Labour member I find it odd being asked to donate to a campaign so that a Labour prime minister can be removed.
Laugh my pants off if burnham gets beat
Tour de force! If I was a betting man my money would be on Reform.
The 1980s
Sorry, but this is absolute nonsense:
"residents of Makerfield’s identify primarily with their towns, and regard Wigan itself as a local rival"
As someone who grew up in the constituency, has their entire family and lots of friends there, I've never met anyone in "Makerfield" - which isn't really a thing bar coming after "Ashton-In" - who doesn't consider themselves a Wiganer other than people who moved from elsewhere, primarily Liverpool.
Hi Sean, I agree on Makerfield and thought I had made this clear in the piece - as I say right at the start there isn't anywhere in the seat called "Makerfield". When I'm referring to the towns here I mean Ashton, Platt Bridge, and so on. If I've overstated the divide between the area and Wigan, I put my hands up - this seemed to me the best explanation for the area's long tradition of backing independents (and Community Action) in local elections. I will edit to tone this point down.