The Trump victory - a view from the frontline

A guest post from Ian Warren

As we all digest last night’s shock result from the United States, where a massive red wave has swept Donald Trump back into the White House, here is a special guest from veteran campaign professional, data shed manager and longstanding friend of the Swingometer, Ian Warren. In a two decade career working with campaigns across the world Ian has forgotten more about life at the front line of politics than most people ever learn. Here are his thoughts on what just happen in America.

RF

“I'm a political professional, it's what I do. I'm proud of it.” (James Carville)

Well, I'm a political professional. Whether I'm proud of it often depends on which side of an election I line up behind. It's the discipline I've committed to. I love it and I hate it. I'm not alone - hundreds or thousands of campaigners, analysts, field operatives and names you've never heard of chose to make this their existence. I'm just one of them.

This morning, for the first time in my 20-odd years in this profession, I am surprisingly compelled to write something down. I haven't don't this before, so bear with me while I lead you through the shattered remnants of the parts of my brain I've chosen to wilfully destroy in pursuit of this profession.

Donald Trump has won an impressive election victory. He has proven his political capacity again. It's his victory alone, a very personal one for him, and he should be congratulated.

If that last paragraph invokes you to leave this Substack in disgust, then you're probably not part of a solution to a problem like Donald Trump.

The people aren’t wrong. I've spent a lot of time in America (unpaid, on my own) driving up and down the hollers of West Virginia or in the bars of the steel towns of Pennsylvania. I lived in the US for a few years. The American people, for all their flaws, aren't wrong here. America itself isn't any better or worse than it was yesterday morning before the polls opened. It will continue to occupy its place as the most powerful nation in the world for all the talk about a rising China or emerging economies. It simply has too many implicit advantages as a single land mass with massive natural and human wealth and a unified, albeit strained, political union to be seriously challenged.

So if you think the people are either stupid or voting against their own self interest, then you're probably not part of a solution to a problem like Donald Trump. If you think America is somehow smaller than it was yesterday, you've also probably not read a compendium of the advantages it holds. And, again, you can't be part of solving a problem like Donald Trump.

So, let's assume you've got this far. Good. Can we agree Donald Trump is very good at what he does, and that voters aren't stupid, and that America isn't broken? Again, good.

Now for the real reason for this post - what to do about a problem like Donald Trump.

Let's start with Who. “Who” gets to solve a problem like Donald Trump? This is intended as a very specific question. Is it the people who have already tried and failed to beat Donald Trump? Again, I want to be very specific here. Draw up a list of who has been most prominent and kindly and professionally ask them to step away. They can't be part of a solution now.

I've lived through many, many campaigns. I've been told [often by the same people] that Scotland would never vote for independence (phew, right? well, no, but that's for another time); that Britain would never vote to Leave; that Boris would never be Prime Minister; that President Macron was the saviour; that Ed would beat Cameron; that Corbyn would be humiliated or vindicated; that Trump would never beat Clinton; that Trump would never beat Harris.

I've had one too many tours of Vietnam. Enough. The “Who” here is amongst the most important parts of meeting a problem like Donald Trump or Nigel Farage or Marine Le Pen.

I'm talking here about a political class which believes it, and only it, is best placed to lead the effort to beat Trump or “meet the challenge from Reform” or whatever crisis they've chosen to stake out and lead the resistance against.

I'm here to say that the generals of the last campaigns have casually sent exhausted foot soldiers over the top and watched them be defeated again and again in a vain belief that throwing enough men (and women) and money at the problem makes it go away.

It didn't. It doesn't. It won't.

So, start with “Who” before deciding on “How” or “What”. The “How” and “What” will fail without the “Who” being settled first. Oh, and, ironically, it's important who gets to decide “Who”. You get my point. Before deciding to go and fight, be sure you're entering that fight with the leadership you need.

In poker, there's a rule. If you're casting around the table looking for the sucker…..it's probably you. So, in the coming weeks take note of those people who told us Trump couldn't win. They'll now want to cast themselves as the solution to a problem like Donald Trump again. Don't let them.

Build something else.

Start with “who”. Here's a hint to set things off: for the most part, they don't live in Washington DC, New York or London or Paris. They don't spend any time reading pieces like these and nor would I want them to. They get on with their lives. Like I will.

Ian Warren has worked with campaigns in Britain, Europe and the United States in a two decade career as an election data consultant.