Whether this scenario proves right or wrong, and I agree it is much more plausible than the amount of media coverage it and similar scenarios get in the media (esp compared to Tory paths to victory or a hung parliament), this is how political forecasting should be done. Laying out the reasoning step by step, and putting numbers on things. And being clear about the potential doubt (and where that is higher or lower).
It's something too few people do, and especially too few journalists and commentators do, but Rob Ford once again gives an exemplar.
Rob, what do you think are the chances of the Lib Dems beating the Conservatives to 2nd place in terms of seat numbers and becoming the official opposition?
I think a big Labour win will be a disaster for the country. Not because I think that there is anything wrong with Labour. Its just that they'll be in power for 10 years, roundly hated again and we'll get 15 years of Tory to follow. The sam old same old cycle. it has to stop for the good of the country.
Labour could bring in STV or AVS that would stop them winning overall control for 2nd term but make it nearly impossible for Tories to every win overall control again.
Interesting article. I think the realistic absolute maximum Labour can get is about 380 seats if they gain about 150 from the Tories and 30 from the SNP. I think the Lib Dems have a good chance of recovering to 40 seats. ~60 seats is a bit out there though and would involve winning some real long shots like Chelmsford. I will be shocked if the Tories go that low (below 30%) and reform that high though. I'm still expecting them to get about 34% in the end which is a why a small Labour majority is my general prediction. I'm confident of very large swings back to Labour in some seats like Plymouth Moor View, Bassetlaw, Swindon N etc but less so others.
good point about Farage needing to abandon his media career. I can't see him as a constituency MP. Had he stood here in Great Grimsby, he would have romped home. But representing a small coastal town a lot of economic and social problems? No.
Whether this scenario proves right or wrong, and I agree it is much more plausible than the amount of media coverage it and similar scenarios get in the media (esp compared to Tory paths to victory or a hung parliament), this is how political forecasting should be done. Laying out the reasoning step by step, and putting numbers on things. And being clear about the potential doubt (and where that is higher or lower).
It's something too few people do, and especially too few journalists and commentators do, but Rob Ford once again gives an exemplar.
Is it just me or does Bing AI seem to think Ed Miliband is still Labour leader?
Rob, what do you think are the chances of the Lib Dems beating the Conservatives to 2nd place in terms of seat numbers and becoming the official opposition?
I think a big Labour win will be a disaster for the country. Not because I think that there is anything wrong with Labour. Its just that they'll be in power for 10 years, roundly hated again and we'll get 15 years of Tory to follow. The sam old same old cycle. it has to stop for the good of the country.
Labour could bring in STV or AVS that would stop them winning overall control for 2nd term but make it nearly impossible for Tories to every win overall control again.
Interesting article. I think the realistic absolute maximum Labour can get is about 380 seats if they gain about 150 from the Tories and 30 from the SNP. I think the Lib Dems have a good chance of recovering to 40 seats. ~60 seats is a bit out there though and would involve winning some real long shots like Chelmsford. I will be shocked if the Tories go that low (below 30%) and reform that high though. I'm still expecting them to get about 34% in the end which is a why a small Labour majority is my general prediction. I'm confident of very large swings back to Labour in some seats like Plymouth Moor View, Bassetlaw, Swindon N etc but less so others.
good point about Farage needing to abandon his media career. I can't see him as a constituency MP. Had he stood here in Great Grimsby, he would have romped home. But representing a small coastal town a lot of economic and social problems? No.
Fascinating analysis, Rob. Any educated guesses as to what will happen in Northern Ireland?