Archive - The Swingometer

Why is no one polling the West Midlands?

We know nothing about the biggest contest in next month's local elections

Apr 9 •

Could Sadiq Khan Lose in London?

His advisers say the race is closer than it looks. Do their claims stack up?

Apr 4 •

March 2024

The Rochdale by-election: Galloway does it again

Veteran firebrand completes his hat-trick of upsets over Labour in a contest defined by controversy

Mar 2 •

February 2024

"Things can only get better"

Two more stonking by-election wins for Starmer; ReformUK now a real threat

Feb 16 •

Labour and Muslim voters

A big drop in support will worry the party, but the electoral risks are limited

Feb 7 •

January 2024

Stop the Boats has failed

An impossible pledge brings predictable disaster

Jan 19 •

What would a really big Labour win look like?

Running through one plausible scenario

Jan 8 •

December 2023

My 2023 predictions reviewed

A Swingometer self-audit

Dec 20, 2023 •

A year of the Swingometer

And a big year to come

Dec 4, 2023 •

October 2023

By-elections double whammy for Labour

Record breaking results suggest a change of government is on the way

Oct 20, 2023 •

Rishi Rebound Revisited

Not much progress six months on

Oct 2, 2023 •

September 2023

The Scottish Play

The SNP's crisis offers short and long term opportunities to Labour

Sep 29, 2023 •

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